Nathan MacKinnon 2027 Hart Trophy odds: an 8.6 cent count

Is 8.6¢ a low price for Nathan MacKinnon to win the Hart Memorial Trophy in 2026-27, or has the board already marked the Colorado Avalanche centre down for a reason? Polymarket showed a YES midpoint of 8.6¢ at 07:04 UTC on October 20, 2026, with a 7.1¢ bid, a 10.1¢ ask and a last trade at 10.6¢, a week after the same contract had printed 19.3¢ at 07:00 UTC on October 13. The count below uses his place on the NHL points list from 2021-22 through 2025-26, multiplied by how often that place won the Hart.

What 8.6 cents buys on the 2026-27 Hart contract

This is one name on the board NHL Hart Memorial Trophy Winner. Rules on the Polymarket page send it to the player who wins the Hart for the 2026-27 season. A tie follows the NHL's official winner. If several winners are announced, the last name that comes first alphabetically is the one that pays. The page states the failsafe directly.

"If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other"."

(Polymarket, market rules, read October 20, 2026)

11:59 pm Eastern on June 30, 2027 is 03:59 UTC on July 1, 2027, the end time on the market record. Official NHL information is the resolution source. YES pays only if MacKinnon is named. A points title does not settle it.

Cents are the implied probability before any fee, so 8.6¢ is an 8.6% price. At 07:04 UTC on October 20, 2026 the book was not empty: bid 7.1¢, ask 10.1¢, last trade 10.6¢, volume $4,890, displayed liquidity $357. A buyer lifts the ask, which is 10.1%, and a seller hits 7.1¢. The midpoint is the reference price, not a fill.

McDavid's YES, same clock, was 48.2¢ with a 47.1¢ bid and a 49.3¢ ask, on about $10,107 of volume. Celebrini was 9.5¢. Wide books elsewhere are ignored. Only one name can win.

Polymarket midpoint, 07:04 UTC on October 20, 2026. NO is 100 minus 16. The third row drops 2023-24. No fee removed.

Kalshi contract KXNHLHART-27 last traded at 8.0¢ at the same 07:04 UTC reading, but the book was 1.3¢ bid and 12.0¢ ask on about $3,591 of volume. That spread is too wide to treat 8¢ as a second tight price. It does not settle the Polymarket midpoint either way.

Is Nathan MacKinnon at 8.6¢ value to win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy? The Polymarket YES midpoint at 07:04 UTC on October 20, 2026 was 8.6¢, an 8.6% implied probability before fees, and the book was 7.1¢ to 10.1¢. Across 2021-22 through 2025-26 he finished first in points zero times, second twice and third once. The points leader won the Hart once, the runner-up twice and third place never. The only product that is not zero is 2/5 times 2/5, or 4/25, which is 16%. Sixteen minus 8.6 is 7.4 percentage points. Remove 2023-24, when he won the Hart from second place, and both rates fall to 1/4, so 1/4 times 1/4 is 6.25%. Then 8.6 minus 6.25 is 2.35 percentage points the other way. A reader who refuses to let that one trophy predict the next reads 8.6¢ as slightly rich.

How five seasons of scoring place add up to 16 percent

The window stops at completed seasons, 2021-22 through 2025-26. Shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 are out, so each season in the sum is an 82-game schedule even where he missed games. The nine games of 2026-27 are out as well. An open season has no finished place. Inputs are his games and points on the NHL player page, the order on the skater stats page, and the Hart season on the winner's page.

In 2021-22, 16 skaters had more than 88 points and Aleksander Barkov also had 88, so his place is 17. A winner's place of 0 is Connor Hellebuyck, a goalie, in 2024-25. Winners from NHL player pages: Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, MacKinnon, Hellebuyck, Nikita Kucherov.

First, second and third are the only slots in the product, because each belongs to one player. Harts won from outside the top three add nothing for him. He finished outside twice, fifth and 17th, and he was not the winner either time. That choice keeps 16% from pretending to cover a goalie or a sixth-place forward.

Work the three products. He was first in 0 of five seasons, and the points leader won 1 of five (McDavid, 153 points in 82 games in 2022-23), so that term is 0. He was second in 2 of five (2023-24, 2024-25), and the runner-up won 2 of five (himself in 2023-24, Kucherov in 2025-26), so 2/5 times 2/5 is 4/25, or 0.16. He was third in 1 of five (127 points, 80 games, 2025-26) and third place won 0 Harts, so that term is 0. The sum is 16%.

Sixteen minus 8.6 is 7.4 at the midpoint. At the 10.1¢ ask the gap is 5.9 percentage points. The NO price of 91.4¢ against an 84% count is a 7.4 percentage point gap the other way. The spread is still there on every one of those comparisons.

2023-24 does two jobs, which is the soft spot. He finished second, and the second-place finisher won. Drop that season from both rates and four seasons remain. He was second in 1 of those four. The runner-up won 1 of those four Harts, Kucherov in 2025-26. First place for him is still zero. Third place times zero Harts is still zero. Left standing is 1/4 times 1/4, or 6.25%, and 8.6 minus 6.25 is 2.35.

Next year's place is an equal draw from the five seasons, even though the 17th-place year was 65 games and the last three finishes were second, second and third. The Hart rate is separate from his place, so one trophy enters twice. Five seasons is a short list. Putting a public count beside a cents price, rather than a private rating, is what this desk did in the Wembanyama 2027 MVP note, and again on a different award in the Jeremiah Smith Heisman note. A league outright gets the same treatment in the Inter Serie A note.

Why that count sits above the Polymarket price

The last three finished seasons carry everything above 8.6%. Second with 140 points in 2023-24 brought the Hart and the Ted Lindsay Award. Second with 116 came in 2024-25. Third with 127 points and 53 goals in 2025-26 brought the Rocket Richard Trophy, while Kucherov won the Hart from second with 130 points in 76 games. McDavid led that year with 138, took the Art Ross and the Ted Lindsay, and did not take the Hart. The points leader has won this trophy once in five tries.

Listed beside that, and outside the product, are a Calder in 2013-14, a Lady Byng in 2019-20 and the 2021-22 Stanley Cup, plus 959 games, 426 goals and 1,158 points. Born September 1, 1995, in Halifax. None of that enters the count.

Is Nathan MacKinnon at 8.6¢ value to win the 2026-27 Hart after nine games? The Polymarket YES midpoint at 07:04 UTC on October 20, 2026 was 8.6¢, an 8.6% implied probability. The five-season count is 16%, 7.4 percentage points over the price, or 6.25% if 2023-24 is removed, leaving the price 2.35 percentage points rich. He has six goals, 10 assists and 16 points in nine games, fifth and tied with Matthews and Bouchard. That line is not an input. October 16 was four points against Pittsburgh, and October 19 in Philadelphia was one shot and a minus-2. Adam Kimelman's recap, up at 03:41 UTC on October 20, named Martin Necas and T.J. Hughes and did not name him. The contract was already 8.85¢ at 09:00 UTC on October 19. McDavid's YES rose from 12.4¢ at 12:00 UTC on October 13 to 48.2¢, while the standings at 07:00 UTC had Colorado on 11 points in nine games. Nine games do not prove the 16%.

Why 8.6 cents can still be the fair number

Doubt the 7.4 point gap first. It survives only while 2023-24 is allowed to count twice. Without that season the price is 2.35 percentage points above the count, inside a 3-cent spread, on $357 of displayed liquidity. A few points on a book that thin are noise when the direction is stable. The direction here is not stable. 8.6¢ sits between 6.25% and 16%. The band is the finding.

The favourite's start explains the compression. McDavid has 23 points in eight games, six goals and 17 assists: 23 divided by eight is 2.875 a game, and he is plus-19, skating with Leon Draisaitl. Derek Van Diest's piece, 21:21 UTC on October 19, 2026, has the coach on the stat he watches.

“Well, I like the plus-19, so that would be the focus for me,” Babcock said. “You’re playing against good people and you’re doing things, obviously 5-on-5, to dominate the game. (McDavid and Draisaitl) are playing together and they’re playing well, and (Podkolzin) is a real good player who gives them the dimension just like (Zach Hyman) would give them.”

Mike Babcock, coach, Edmonton Oilers (NHL.com, October 19, 2026)

McDavid's page shows the same plus-19. Once MacKinnon is outside the top three, this count pays him nothing.

Voters have already looked past the top of the points list inside this window. Hellebuyck won in 2024-25 while Kucherov had 121 and MacKinnon 116. The goalie line was 63 games, 47 wins and eight shutouts, a 2.00 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage (2.00461 and 0.92487 on the NHL summary). Matthews won from sixth in 2021-22. Two of the five Harts came from outside the top three. Kaprizov has 10 goals in nine games on his own page.

Celebrini, on that same 07:04 UTC snapshot, was 9.5¢ against 8.6¢, with 11 points in seven games and no Hart on his page. About one cent separates a former winner, fifth on the list, from a younger centre. Adding 16 to 48.2 would treat two prices on a one-winner board as one forecast.

"Sluggish and sloppy," Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. "Execution was a big factor for us tonight, and the pace we were playing at. Sloppy, and passes weren't good, handling passes wasn't good. It's hard to go anywhere when you're beating the puck up, and that's what I thought we did for the bulk of the game."

Jared Bednar, coach, Colorado Avalanche (NHL.com, October 20, 2026)

Philadelphia was one night, about the team. A run of nights like that recap would move his place on the points list, the count's only input, before a vote is cast.

Where the MacKinnon Hart price breaks

The 16% reading at 8.6¢ fails on a public number, not on a mood. Any one of these is enough.

• YES reaches 16¢. The implied probability then matches the five-season count and the 7.4 percentage point gap is gone. A buyer paying the 10.1¢ ask, who also accepts 6.25%, is already past the stricter figure. Above 16¢ the board is richer than the generous count.
• He misses a month. The seasons in the count ran 65, 71, 82, 79 and 80 games. The 65-game year is the 17th-place year. Another long absence leaves the top three, and outside that group the count is zero.
• Sixth or worse at 41 games. Half of 82 is 41. All of the 16% comes from finishing second or third. Fifth after nine games does not trip this. Sixth at the halfway mark means this is not the season the rate assumed.
• No winner by the deadline. Cancelled, postponed, or no announcement by 11:59 pm ET on June 30, 2027, and the rules pay "Other". YES loses even if he has been the best player available.

Until 41 games, half of 82, the check is place. Second or third at that mark leaves 8.6¢ looking stale against the 16% cell. Sixth or worse means the year is not the one that rate assumed. The standings at 07:00 UTC on October 20 had Colorado at five wins, three losses and one overtime loss. A later drop out of the playoff positions would be new information this count does not hold.

FAQ

In the same October 19 piece, Babcock would not treat eight games as a finished argument.

“We want to win today and then we can win tomorrow. We have to win today by having a good practice and that’s kind of our focus, and we’re doing the same with those guys.”

Mike Babcock, coach, Edmonton Oilers (NHL.com, October 19, 2026)

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