BTC$82,983+0.51%
ETH$2,508+0.74%
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XRP$1.40−0.17%
SOL$110.08+0.52%
TRX$0.3305−0.14%
ZEC$1,231+1.29%
HYPE$85.55+1.58%
DOGE$0.0860+0.21%Will the Democratic Party control the…Yes 90.5¢PolymarketWill the Republican Party control the…Yes 9.5¢PolymarketUS x Iran ceasefire continues through…Yes 77.5¢PolymarketFear & Greed61GreedLong-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
December Fed decision odds put a quarter-point hike at 74.5 cents on Polymarket. A two-venue average of 72.5 per cent leaves that price about 2 points rich.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
October Fed decision odds: Polymarket prices no change at 84.5 cents. Dots and a 29,000 payroll print put a fair hold near 80.5 percent, about 4 points rich.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 60.25¢ to be 2026's largest IPO by market cap. Our estimate is 57%, a -3pp edge — SpaceX already closed day one near $2.1tn.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Avengers: Doomsday box office odds sit at 52¢ on Polymarket for 2026's biggest opening weekend. Spider-Man's $360.09m is already banked — the math.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket aliens odds 2026: YES trades at 3.9¢ — a 3.9% implied probability — against our 1.8% estimate. The base-rate math, and where the read breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
MLS Cup 2026 odds: Polymarket prices Vancouver Whitecaps at 18.3¢, or 17.1% de-vigged. Our path model says 12.5% — and Kalshi and DraftKings both sit lower.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Brewers World Series 2026 odds: Polymarket has Milwaukee at 10.5¢ despite MLB's best record and run differential. Our model says 16% — a 5.5pp edge.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
NFC Championship 2027 odds: Polymarket has the Dallas Cowboys at 6.2¢. Our three-anchor model says 6.0% — the edge, the maths and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices the San Antonio Spurs at 20.5¢ to win the 2027 NBA title. Our model says 16.5%. The de-vig math, the edge and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Arsenal at 42.5¢ to win the 2026-27 Premier League title. We put the true number at 36.5% — why the EPL 2027 favourite looks rich.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
College Football Playoff 2027 odds: Polymarket has Ohio State at 13.5¢, a 13.1% de-vigged probability. Our model says 16% — a 2.9pp edge, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Kalshi and Polymarket sports volume is booming, but BofA puts prediction markets at ~8% of US online sports betting. The volume-vs-handle reality.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
