BTC$82,517−0.39%
ETH$2,496−2.72%
BNB$742.82−3.34%
XRP$1.40−0.40%
SOL$110.65−4.02%
TRX$0.3320−0.85%
ZEC$1,224−1.37%
HYPE$85.72−1.58%
DOGE$0.0854−2.50%Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace…Yes 37.3¢PolymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest…Yes 84.5¢PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by…Yes 10.5¢PolymarketFear & Greed59GreedLong-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
Polymarket prices Yes on Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 at 40.5¢. Our base-rate model says 43% — a 2.5pp edge that is noise on a market trading $1,885 a day.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 60.25¢ to be 2026's largest IPO by market cap. Our estimate is 57%, a -3pp edge — SpaceX already closed day one near $2.1tn.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Avengers: Doomsday box office odds sit at 52¢ on Polymarket for 2026's biggest opening weekend. Spider-Man's $360.09m is already banked — the math.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Los Angeles mayor 2026 odds: Polymarket prices Nithya Raman at 35.15¢ against Karen Bass. Our transfer model says 37% — the edge, the math and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Bab el-Mandeb closure by December 31 at 16.5¢. IMF PortWatch data puts the true number nearer 6% — the odds, the edge and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot at 56.15¢ to be Israel's next PM after the October 27 election. Our estimate is 57% — why the edge is under a point.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket aliens odds 2026: YES trades at 3.9¢ — a 3.9% implied probability — against our 1.8% estimate. The base-rate math, and where the read breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep at 48.5¢ in its Balance of Power 2026 midterms market. Our rebuild says 49.35% — and why the 1.5pp gap is not real.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Russia Duma 2026 odds: is United Russia at 70.5¢ value?
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices Maduro at 85.5¢ to lead Venezuela at end-2026 — from a US jail cell. Why 'Maduro out' at 14.5¢ is fairly priced, and what it really asks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
MLS Cup 2026 odds: Polymarket prices Vancouver Whitecaps at 18.3¢, or 17.1% de-vigged. Our path model says 12.5% — and Kalshi and DraftKings both sit lower.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket prices a China invasion of Taiwan by end-2026 at 3.85c. Our sourced estimate is 1.0% - a 2.85pp gap - plus what the resolution excludes.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
