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Deep Dives
Brewers World Series 2026 odds: is 10.5¢ on Polymarket value?
Brewers World Series 2026 odds: Polymarket has Milwaukee at 10.5¢ despite MLB's best record and run differential. Our model says 16% — a 5.5pp edge.
Tobi Opeyemi AmureDeep Dives
Long-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
NFC Championship 2027 odds: is Dallas at 6¢ on Polymarket value?
NFC Championship 2027 odds: Polymarket has the Dallas Cowboys at 6.2¢. Our three-anchor model says 6.0% — the edge, the maths and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
NBA 2027 title odds: is San Antonio at 20.5¢ value?
Polymarket prices the San Antonio Spurs at 20.5¢ to win the 2027 NBA title. Our model says 16.5%. The de-vig math, the edge and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
US-Iran nuclear deal odds: is Yes at 11.5¢ on Polymarket value?
US-Iran nuclear deal odds: Polymarket prices Yes at 11.5¢ for December 31, 2026. Our estimate is 13.5% — and the real gap sits one contract over.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket NYC mayor odds: is Mamdani exit at 4.5¢ value?
Polymarket NYC mayor odds: the market prices a Mamdani exit before 2027 at 4.5¢. Our base-rate estimate says 2%, but the whole edge is worth about $45.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
EPL 2027 title odds: is Arsenal at 42.5¢ value?
Polymarket prices Arsenal at 42.5¢ to win the 2026-27 Premier League title. We put the true number at 36.5% — why the EPL 2027 favourite looks rich.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
French election 2027 odds: is Le Pen at 32.5¢ value?
French election 2027 odds: Polymarket prices Marine Le Pen at 32.55¢, a 32.9% implied probability. Our model says 45% — a 12-point edge, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Fed September 2026 odds: is no change at 73.5¢ on Polymarket value?
Polymarket prices no change at the September 2026 Fed meeting at 73.5¢. Our estimate is 78% — a 4.5pp edge — and the hike leg has halved in a fortnight.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
College Football Playoff 2027 odds: is Ohio State at 13.5¢ value?
College Football Playoff 2027 odds: Polymarket has Ohio State at 13.5¢, a 13.1% de-vigged probability. Our model says 16% — a 2.9pp edge, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Makhachev vs Garry UFC 330 odds: is 76.5¢ value?
Makhachev vs Machado Garry UFC 330 odds: Polymarket has the champion at 76.5¢ and Pinnacle's no-vig price is 75.0%. Our model says 74.3% — the market is right.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Israel next PM odds: is Eisenkot at 51.5¢ on Polymarket value?
Polymarket prices Gadi Eisenkot at 51.45c to be Israel's next prime minister after the October 27 election. Our model says 47% - where the edge really sits.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Democratic nominee 2028 odds: is Newsom at 17.8¢ value?
Democratic presidential nominee 2028 odds on Polymarket: Gavin Newsom leads at 17.8¢, but the 51-leg board sums to 96.5¢. Our estimate says 13% — no value.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure