
Kalshi hit $12.35bn a month as the regulatory squeeze tightens
Prediction markets caught regulated sportsbooks on volume — Kalshi cleared $12.35bn in March. Now a 2026 federal-vs-state fight decides who keeps the handle.
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Prediction markets caught regulated sportsbooks on volume — Kalshi cleared $12.35bn in March. Now a 2026 federal-vs-state fight decides who keeps the handle.

Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume hit about $24 billion in April 2026 even as Bitcoin fell 45% from its high. The driver is regulated US sports contracts.

US iGaming revenue rose 20.7% in Q1 2026 while Bitcoin ETF flows turned choppy. The two decoupled — proof online-casino growth is structural, not a crypto proxy.

Kalshi took 70.8% of US prediction-market notional volume in the week to May 24 on $1.6B of sports trading — what NBA Finals tip-off June 3 tests next.

Kalshi overtook Polymarket in April 2026 as prediction-market growth decouples from crypto rails — with sports betting, not crypto, driving the sector.

US sportsbook handle fell 3.3% in early 2026 (Stifel). Polymarket signed MLB and is absorbing some of that slack. Where it's going, and where the thesis breaks.