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Deep Dives
Champions League 2027 odds: is PSG at 14.5¢ value?
Polymarket has PSG joint-favourite at 14.5c for the 2027 Champions League. The base rate for holders retaining is 9.1% - the favourite looks modestly rich.
Tobi Opeyemi AmureDeep Dives
Long-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
JD Vance 2028 nomination odds: is 43¢ on Polymarket value?
Polymarket has JD Vance at 43.15¢ for the 2028 GOP nomination — 47.7% normalised. Polling says that is roughly fair, and the value sits with Rubio at 23.35¢.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
LaLiga 2027 odds: is Barcelona at 53.5¢ value?
LaLiga 2027 odds: Polymarket prices Barcelona at 53.5¢ to win the title. Our estimate says 51% — where the real divergence sits, and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Brazil election 2026 odds: is Lula at 64.5¢ on Polymarket value?
Brazil election 2026 odds: Polymarket has Lula at 64.5c. Our poll-error-corrected model says 68.5% - the edge, the math and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
MicroStrategy margin call odds: Polymarket prices it at 4 cents
MicroStrategy margin call odds sit at 4.25c on Polymarket. Strategy's 10-Q says all 842,138 BTC are unencumbered - why the true number looks lower.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Congress stock trading ban odds 2026: is Yes at 11¢ value?
Congress stock trading ban odds: Polymarket prices a ban before 2027 at 11¢ after the House passed the Stop Insider Trading Act. Our model says 5%.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Strait of Hormuz odds: is normal traffic by August 31 at 12.5¢ value?
Strait of Hormuz odds: Polymarket prices normal traffic by August 31 at 12.5¢. Our estimate says ~6.5% — why the value sits with NO, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
US Open 2026 women's odds: is Sabalenka at 28.5¢ value?
US Open 2026 women's odds: Polymarket has Sabalenka at 28.5¢ to three-peat. Our model says ~23% — and Osaka at 6.2¢ is the interesting number.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
September Fed hike odds: Polymarket's 53.5¢ vs the bond market
September Fed hike odds: Polymarket prices a 25bp hike at 53.5¢ while rate swaps say 60%. The edge, the 9-3 dissent structure, and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket US invade Iran odds 2026: is 25¢ too high?
Polymarket prices a US invasion of Iran at 25.5 cents, but the contract needs territorial control, not airstrikes. Our estimate is 13% - the value is on NO.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds: Trump at 3¢ vs 3/1 at the books
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds: Polymarket has Trump at 3.15¢ while books quote 2/1. Our estimate says the prediction market is right and the books are wrong.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
US recession odds 2026: Polymarket prices it at 12 cents
US recession odds 2026: Polymarket has YES at 12¢ against bank forecasts of 20-40%. Why the window adjustment says the value is on NO, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure