
Kalshi's 71% prediction-market grip meets NBA Finals stress test
Kalshi took 70.8% of US prediction-market notional volume in the week to May 24 on $1.6B of sports trading — what NBA Finals tip-off June 3 tests next.
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Kalshi took 70.8% of US prediction-market notional volume in the week to May 24 on $1.6B of sports trading — what NBA Finals tip-off June 3 tests next.

Kalshi overtook Polymarket in April 2026 as prediction-market growth decouples from crypto rails — with sports betting, not crypto, driving the sector.

US sportsbook handle fell 3.3% in early 2026 (Stifel). Polymarket signed MLB and is absorbing some of that slack. Where it's going, and where the thesis breaks.