Tour de France 2026 stage 6 odds: Pogacar favourite, picks

Tour de France 2026 stage 6 odds make Tadej Pogacar the shortest stage favourite of the race so far: bet365 prices the yellow-jersey holder at 4-11 (fractional — a £11 stake returns £4 profit; 1.36 decimal, -275 American) for Thursday’s 186.2km mountain stage from Pau to Gavarnie-Gèdre. It is the only high-mountain day of the opening week, and the last chance for his general-classification rivals to land a blow before a run of flatter stages.

What makes stage 6 the first real mountain test?

The route stacks a trio of climbs into the finale: the Col d’Aspin, the full La Mongie side of the Tourmalet — 17.1km at 7.3%, cresting at the highest point of this year’s race — and the closing rise to Gavarnie-Gèdre. It is the only high-mountain stage of the first week, which concentrates every GC ambition into one afternoon in the Pyrenees, as our stage 2 odds preview anticipated when the race left the Grand Départ.

Can anyone drop Pogacar on the Tourmalet?

The market says probably not: 4-11 implies roughly a 73% win probability for a single stage, a remarkable number in a sport where breakaways routinely survive. Jonas Vingegaard is 16-1 for the stage, with Isaac del Toro at 11-1 and home favourite Valentin Paret-Peintre at 20-1 heading the next tier. Our pre-race Tour de France 2026 outright odds guide covered why Pogacar started as a heavy overall favourite.

The breakaway question

The counter-scenario is well established: if the GC teams mark each other over the Aspin, a strong breakaway can take five minutes into the final climb. That is the logic behind Racing Post’s each-way stage tip of Ben O’Connor at 150-1 with bet365 — a proven high-mountain stage winner in the Alps, a former Vuelta a España runner-up, and a rider currently free of team-leadership duties, exactly the profile that gets in the move when the favourites hesitate. (Racing Post)

Match-Up & Markets

Favourite: Tadej Pogacar at 4-11 fractional / 1.36 decimal / -275 American on bet365 to win stage 6 — the shortest stage price of the 2026 Tour so far.

Predicted result: Pogacar wins in Gavarnie-Gèdre from a reduced group sprint, ahead of Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro, extending his overall lead. The finishing climb is hard enough to shed the sprinters but shallow enough that a select GC group arriving together is the modal outcome, per cyclinguptodate’s stage analysis.

Markets worth a look:

• Ben O’Connor each-way at 150-1 — Racing Post’s stage tip: a past high-mountain stage winner with Grand Tour pedigree and no leadership duties, live if the break survives the Tourmalet.
• Jonas Vingegaard at 16-1 — the market has priced his difficult opening week, not his climbing ceiling, and the Tourmalet is exactly where that gap shows up.

What to fade: Pogacar at 4-11 as a single. A 73% implied probability on a stage where a five-minute breakaway is a live scenario is thin value at best — the odds-on stage price carries all the risk of the break sticking and none of the payout to compensate.

Odds correct as of July 9, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: What is stage 6 of the Tour de France 2026?
A: A 186.2km mountain stage on Thursday, July 9, 2026 from Pau to Gavarnie-Gèdre, crossing the Col d’Aspin and the Col du Tourmalet — the race’s highest point.

Q: Who is favourite to win stage 6?
A: Tadej Pogacar at 4-11 on bet365 (about 73% implied), ahead of Isaac del Toro at 11-1 and Jonas Vingegaard at 16-1.

Q: How hard is the Col du Tourmalet?
A: From the La Mongie side it climbs 17.1km at an average 7.3% gradient, making it the decisive climb before the finish at Gavarnie-Gèdre.

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