Norway vs Senegal World Cup 2026 odds, prediction & picks

Norway face Senegal in a World Cup 2026 Group I match at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on June 22, 2026, kicking off at 8 p.m. ET. bet365 prices Norway at +135 to win — American odds, where +135 returns $135 profit on a $100 stake, or 2.35 in decimal — with the draw at +240 (3.40) and Senegal at +210 (3.10). Norway top the group after beating Iraq 4-1; Senegal sit bottom after losing 3-1 to France.

Why Norway are favourites

Norway opened with a statement 4-1 win over Iraq, Haaland scoring twice, sending them top of the group and shortening their price. The market reads the matchup as a Norway plurality rather than a command: bet365’s +135 implies roughly a 43% chance of a Norway win, against about 32% for Senegal and 29% for the draw.

The single biggest input is Haaland’s form: 18 goals in his last nine competitive Norway appearances and two already at this tournament, which is why the anytime-scorer market treats him as the card’s most likely goalscorer. Senegal must respond after their opening loss or risk an early exit.

Form, lineups and the venue

Senegal were not outclassed by France — they competed in the first half before defensive lapses cost them after the break. Norway are not watertight either, conceding at least one goal in four of their last five, which is why the over and both-teams-to-score markets are shaded toward action.

Group context sharpens the stakes: Norway can near the knockout rounds with a win, while Senegal realistically need a point to stay alive — an asymmetry that tends to open up the second half.

Where the value sits

With Norway favoured but short of dominant, the live debate is on goals rather than the result. A leaky Norwegian defence facing a Senegal side that must push forward is the scenario the books have priced toward, reflected in the sub-evens over line.

Match-Up & Markets

Favourite: Norway at +135 (American) / 2.35 (decimal) on bet365, draw +240, Senegal +210. The price reflects their group lead and Haaland’s scoring run rather than defensive solidity.

Predicted result: Norway 2-1 Senegal — a Norway win that clears Over 2.5 and lands both teams to score. Haaland’s threat and Norway’s leaky back line, against a Senegal side that must attack, point to an open game.

Prop bets worth a look:

• Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer — 18 goals in his last nine Norway outings and two already at this World Cup make him the card’s most likely scorer.
• Over 2.5 total goals at -105 (BetMGM) — Norway have conceded in four of their last five and Senegal must chase the game.
• Both teams to score “Yes” at -135 (BetMGM) — Senegal scored against France and Norway’s defence has been porous.

What to fade: Senegal to win outright at +210. The must-win narrative tempts at plus-money, but a side that just shipped three goals to France and now faces an in-form Haaland is being asked to fix its defence overnight — the price reflects real risk, not hidden value.

Odds correct as of June 22, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: Who is favourite for Norway vs Senegal at the World Cup?
A: Norway are favourites at +135 on bet365, with Senegal at +210 and the draw at +240 as of June 22, 2026.

Q: What is the prediction for Norway vs Senegal?
A: The lean is a Norway win, around 2-1, with goals at both ends given Norway’s recent defensive record and Senegal’s need to attack.

Q: When and where is the match?
A: It is a Group I fixture at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on June 22, 2026, kicking off at 8 p.m. ET.

For more World Cup 2026 previews, see our breakdowns of France vs Senegal odds and prediction and USA vs Australia odds and picks. Live prices and lines are published by ESPN.

18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.