Tour de France stage 13 odds: Carapaz leads breakaway picks

Tour de France stage 13 odds point firmly to a breakaway winner on July 17, 2026. bet365 makes Richard Carapaz the 7-1 favourite for Dole–Belfort, per Racing Post, with Tom Pidcock 11-1 and both Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel 12-1. The general classification contenders are expected to save their legs for the weekend’s Vosges summit finishes, leaving the year’s longest stage to the escape artists.

Why is stage 13 a breakaway day?

The route is flat for roughly three-quarters of its 205.8km before tilting over the category-three Col des Croix and then the Ballon d’Alsace, whose summit sits close enough to the line that a strong descent into Belfort can decide the stage. With brutal Vosges stages waiting at the weekend, UAE Team Emirates-XRG has little incentive to chase all day — and the same maths applies to the teams behind.

Where does the general classification stand?

Pogačar, chasing a fifth Tour title after wins in 2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025, has been in commanding form — he took stage 10 at Le Lioran to stretch his lead over Vingegaard to 3:36. “Today was an incredible day. The team did a super good job. We had been targeting this stage for a long time,” Pogačar said after that win. (RTÉ)

Who are the riders to watch?

In American odds, Carapaz’s 7-1 converts to +700, or 8.00 in decimal — a $100 stake returns $700 profit. His climbing pedigree makes him the default pick on any profile ending in a category-one ascent. Pidcock at 11-1 (+1100 / 12.00) is the form angle: third on stage nine and the best descender in the race — his 2022 Alpe d’Huez win came largely on the way down. Van der Poel at 12-1 must survive the Ballon d’Alsace, while Ben Healy at 22-1 is the classic long-range aggressor. TFS’s stage 11 odds preview covered the sprinters’ last clean chance; this profile is the other end of the spectrum.

The betting angle

Favourite: Richard Carapaz at 7-1 (+700 American / 8.00 decimal) on bet365, per Racing Post, as of July 17, 2026 — the strongest pure climber likely to be given freedom in the break.

Predicted result: a large breakaway survives and Tom Pidcock wins in Belfort off the Ballon d’Alsace descent. Pogačar finishes in the main group and keeps yellow, the GC gaps unchanged.

Markets worth a look:

• Tom Pidcock at 11-1 — third on stage nine, and the long descent to the line plays to the most distinctive skill in his toolkit (Racing Post made him its headline pick).
• Alex Baudin at 40-1 — won on a near-identical profile at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes last month and finished just behind Pidcock on stage nine.
• Ben Healy at 22-1 — the peloton’s most persistent breakaway instigator, on the longest stage of the race, the day before the GC teams take over.

What to fade: Pogačar for the stage at 12-1. The yellow jersey has every reason to save his legs for Le Markstein on Saturday, and a 12-1 price on a rider who does not need to win is thin value however good his form — the same short-favourite logic TFS flagged in the Belgian Grand Prix 2026 odds preview.

Odds correct as of July 17, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: What is stage 13 of the 2026 Tour de France?
A: A 205.8km stage from Dole to Belfort on July 17, 2026 — the longest of this year’s race — finishing after the category-one Ballon d’Alsace climb.

Q: Who is favourite to win stage 13?
A: Richard Carapaz at 7-1 on bet365, ahead of Tom Pidcock at 11-1 and Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel at 12-1, per Racing Post.

Q: Can anyone still catch Pogačar in the general classification?
A: Jonas Vingegaard trails by 3:36 and Remco Evenepoel by 4:06 with the Vosges weekend ahead — possible, but Pogačar has been the strongest climber in the race and is odds-on for a fifth title.

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