October Fed decision odds: Polymarket prices no change at 84.5 cents

No change at 84.5¢ is slightly rich. It is not cheap, and it is not a 10-point mistake. At 08:26 UTC on October 9, 2026, Polymarket's shown price on a hold implied 84.5%, with the quote at 84¢ bid and 85¢ ask, for a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on October 28. Our estimate is 80.5%. The gap is the September 16 dot plot: four of 18 participants have an end-2026 rate that takes a hike in October and another in December, while 12 have only one further move to place. What follows is that split, the 29,000 payroll gain that pulled October back from a hike, and the prices that would make 84.5¢ fair.

How the 80.5 percent hold was built

The 80.5% figure is a timing model for October 28, not a forecast of the December rate. It uses the September 15-16 Summary of Economic Projections, Governor Christopher Waller's October 8 account of those dots, and the September employment report. December 8-9 is the next projections meeting. October 27-28 is not.

Eighteen participants filed a 2026 funds-rate dot. Four set the year-end midpoint at 4.375%, which is 50 basis points above today's 3.875% midpoint of the 3.75% to 4% range. Twelve set it at 4.125%, one further quarter-point. Two left it at 3.875%. The published median is 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. Waller put the same counts in meeting language: 16 of the 18 expected at least one more hike at the two meetings still left, and four of those 16 expected two additional hikes.

Only those four dots require an October move if the steps stay at 25 basis points. Four of 18 is 22.2%. We do not take all of it. Preliminary September payrolls rose 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and Waller said hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. A 0.80 haircut on the 22.2% share is 17.8%, rounded to an 18% chance of a 25 basis point hike. A 50 basis point hike is 0.5%. Cuts are 1% together, 0.6% for 25 basis points and 0.4% for 50 or more. No change is the residual, 80.5%. The 0.80 factor is a judgement, and it is the soft input. Treat 80.5% as a direction, not a figure precise to a tenth.

What 84.5 cents buys on the October contract

Polymarket's event is "Fed Decision in October?" The no-change leg asks whether there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting. It settles on the change in the upper bound of the target range versus the level in place before that meeting, using the statement set for October 27-28. The upper bound is 4% now. A hold leaves it there. A 25 basis point hike takes it to 4.25%. Anything off the 25 basis point grid rounds up to the nearest 25. If no statement is out by the end of the following meeting, the rules resolve the event to no change. The endDate is 03:59 UTC on October 29, 2026. At the 08:26 UTC snapshot the event showed about $30.7 million of volume and $3.44 million of liquidity. The no-change leg had about $8.28 million of volume, 84¢ bid and 85¢ ask, shown price 84.5¢.

Kalshi's event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT is mutually exclusive and closes at 17:59 UTC on October 28. The maintain leg, KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0, is a hike of 0 basis points, labelled "Fed maintains rate". Same timestamp: 83¢ bid, 84¢ ask, last trade 83¢, about 3.87 million contracts traded, 143,660 of them in the latest day, open interest about 1.41 million. The 25 basis point hike was 16¢ bid and 18¢ ask. The wings, a larger hike and either cut, were 0¢ bid and 1¢ ask. One contract pays $1. The books differ slightly in how they would round an odd-sized move, and a 1-point gap between 84.5¢ and an 83.5¢ Kalshi mid sits inside the spreads. That gap is not an edge.

Sources: Polymarket outcome prices, Gamma API, 08:26 UTC on October 9, 2026. Best bids and asks are in the text. Kalshi mids are the average of the yes bid and yes ask on KXFEDDECISION-26OCT at the same time. Polymarket leg prices sum to 100.95¢ and Kalshi mids sum to 102¢, because each outcome is its own book. That overround is the spread, not a sportsbook vig, and it was not stripped out. Our column sums to 100%.

Is no change at 84.5¢ value for the October 2026 Fed decision? On the 08:26 UTC snapshot, Polymarket's shown price is 84.5¢ and the quote is 84¢ to 85¢, an 84.5% implied probability before fees. Our estimate is 80.5%, so the favourite is 4 percentage points rich. The whole Polymarket quote sits above 80.5%, and Kalshi's maintain quote of 83¢ to 84¢ does too, so the richness is not an artefact of quoting a mid. Most of the 16 participants who want another hike this year can get it in December. Four of 18 need October if they are to have two 25 basis point moves, and a 0.80 haircut on that share, after a soft payroll print, is an 18% hike probability. Paying 84.5¢ for the hold is slightly rich. It is a small disagreement with a liquid book, not a 10-point one.

Daily history on the same contract shows how the market got here. No change was 65.5¢ on September 11, 60.5¢ on September 16, and 30.5¢ on September 29, so for about a week the October hike was the favourite. It was 65.5¢ on October 1, 74.5¢ on October 2, 82.5¢ on October 3, 83.5¢ on October 7, when the minutes were released, and 84.5¢ on October 9. The round trip is the book separating "another hike by December" from "a hike on October 28".

"And, as I said at the policy symposium in Jackson Hole, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the Committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation."

Kevin Warsh, Chair, Federal Reserve (FOMC press conference, September 16, 2026)

Calling conditions not restrictive is why a further hike is still in the year-end dots. In the same press conference he said the Committee would "continue to evaluate that prospectively." Prospective evaluation is not a date. The statement issued with the 12-0 vote is short, and the minutes say the line was deliberate: the Committee "will deliver price stability."

Why a hold is still the central path

September 16 was the first hike of this sequence, not the second. On July 29 the Committee left the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Warsh has said his first meeting as chair was in June, and that in July a good majority preferred to wait. The September move, to 3.75% to 4%, was unanimous. Jerome Powell voted for it. He sits as a member, not as chair. The Board raised interest on reserve balances to 3.90% and the primary credit rate to 4%, effective September 17. The effective funds rate printed at 3.88% on October 7, inside the range, on $108 billion of volume. Nothing in that plumbing forces another step on October 28.

Payrolls are the new fact, and they are soft beside the month before. In the Bureau of Labor Statistics vintage retrieved on October 9, preliminary September nonfarm payrolls were 159.044 million, up 29,000 from an August level of 159.015 million. August's change on those same levels was 133,000. Unemployment was 4.2% in September and 4.1% in August, the "around 4.1 percent" rate Warsh cited on September 16. A tenth on the unemployment rate and a 29,000 gain do not end an expansion. They do weaken the case that October must be the meeting that spends the year's remaining hike. Our September preview had the hold at 73.5¢ before that meeting, and the Committee hiked anyway. A favourite can be wrong. It is not wrong merely because the dots look hawkish.

Inflation is why the median dot still has one more hike in it, and it is not news from this morning. Staff at the September meeting put 12-month total PCE at 3.8% in August and core PCE at 3.4%. Warsh, working from CPI and PPI, said total PCE "likely was around 3.6 percent" and core PCE and CPI "about 3.2 and 2.4 percent." The CPI-U index has August headline inflation at 3.4% on the year and core CPI at 2.4%. September consumer prices were not in the BLS feed on the morning of October 9. The gap between 3.6% and 3.8% does not schedule the next quarter-point. Both figures are far from 2%.

"If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time."

Christopher J. Waller, Governor, Federal Reserve (Speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum, October 8, 2026)

Waller was speaking for himself. The speech says so. He also said futures prices as of October 7 implied an 85% chance of at least one hike by the December meeting and nearly a 20% chance of two. Nearly 20% for two hikes is the futures version of an October move, if each step is 25 basis points. Polymarket's 15.5¢, a day and a half later, is a slightly lower print of the same idea. The minutes, released October 7, say most participants thought another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, and that each meeting would be taken on its own. "By year end" includes December 8-9, which comes with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. October does not.

Is a 25 basis point hike at 15.5¢ the value side of the October Fed decision? Polymarket showed 15.5¢ at 08:26 UTC on October 9, bid 15¢ and ask 16¢, against our 18% estimate. That is 2.5 percentage points on the midpoint and about 2 percentage points if the buy is at 16¢, before fees. Kalshi's hike was 16¢ bid and 18¢ ask, so 18% sits on Kalshi's offer and does not clear it. The cheapness, such as it is, is the four dots at 4.375%, which Waller read as two further hikes, against a book that marked October down after the payroll print. A couple of points, once the spread is paid, is not a high-confidence disagreement. The September payroll print is why that haircut is there. The hold is the rich side. The hike is only barely cheap, and only on Polymarket.

Why the favourite is still a little rich

The case for a higher October probability than 18% deserves to be stated plainly. All 18 dots are at or above the current midpoint, and 16 are above it. Participants told the minutes they had not seen enough progress on inflation, that inflation risks were skewed up, and that the labour market was near maximum employment with some signs of firming. Several called policy not restrictive, or only mildly so. Many wanted a higher path as insurance. Others wanted it because their base forecast required it. The statement does not bury that in a long guidance paragraph. It says the Committee will deliver price stability. Stop there, and 84.5¢ can look like a gift.

Year-end is the horizon those dots were written for. The median year-end rate is one more hike, not two. Twelve of the 18 can reach 4.125% on December 9 without an October move. The four at 4.375% cannot, unless December brings a 50 basis point step that neither book treats as likely. Those four filed their dots on September 16, before the 29,000 payroll print. Taking 100% of them as an October probability would put the hike near 22% and the hold near 77%. The 0.80 haircut is already the concession to that group. It is why 80.5% sits under both books rather than on top of 84.5¢.

This contract is also not the slower question of the year's whole path. Whether 2026 produces any cut at all was a June market, and July's no-change contract was a meeting the Committee passed without a move. October pays on one statement. It does not pay on the median dot, and it does not pay if the hike arrives on December 9. Reading 16 of 18 as an October probability is the mistake. The hold can be a little too expensive and still be the right favourite.

Spreads finish the point. A 4 percentage point gap is small enough for a fee and a crossing of the quote to swallow. Selling the Polymarket hold near the 84¢ bid, against an 80.5% estimate, is the expression of the view. Buying the hike at 16¢, against 18%, is a thinner one than the 15.5¢ shown price suggests. A 2-point executable difference is not a settled quarrel with the market. It is enough to call 84.5¢ the rich side of a small one.

Where this bet breaks

The lean, that no change at 84.5¢ is about 4 percentage points rich, rests on the 0.80 haircut and on the September jobs figures. It breaks if any of these show up:

• Polymarket no change at or below 80¢. The gap versus 80.5% has closed. Calling the favourite rich no longer describes the book.
• The 25 basis point hike offered at 20¢ or higher. That is through our 18% estimate. The market is then pricing the raw four-of-18 share, or more, and the cheapness on the hike is gone.
• A hot September CPI print before October 27. August core CPI was 2.4% on the year, and September prices were not out on the morning of October 9. A re-acceleration the Committee would treat as a reason not to wait makes 80.5% too high. The haircut assumed October was optional.
• A payroll revision that erases the September gain, or a Warsh speech that parks the next hike in December. Either one pushes the true hold above 84.5% and makes this price cheap rather than rich. So does an unemployment rate that jumps well clear of 4.2% and retires the "another hike by year end" median.

September CPI is the inflation print still missing. The minutes did not move the hold off 83.5¢ on October 7. A speech in which Warsh, or another voter, calls a move appropriate at "the coming meeting" would retire the idea that October and December are interchangeable. So would a hold that drifts to 88¢ with no new data, which would mean the four double-hike dots are not binding. The statement on the afternoon of October 28 is the resolution. Polymarket's event stays open into the early hours of October 29 UTC. Kalshi's event closes that same afternoon.

Does Chair Warsh treat October 28 as the meeting that uses up the year's remaining hike, or as the meeting that shows he meant the Committee would keep evaluating? The dots do not say. The speeches have refused to. The contract pays on that distinction, and a 4-point gap does not settle it.

This article is informational analysis only and is not betting or financial advice. Odds and prediction-market prices move constantly; every price quoted is a timestamped snapshot, not a live line. There is no such thing as a guaranteed bet — past results and model estimates do not guarantee outcomes. Do your own research.

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