Former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis opens as a heavy favourite over ex-welterweight king Kamaru Usman when UFC Fight Night lands in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026, with sportsbooks pricing “Stillknocks” around -340.
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman headlines the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026, a middleweight bout between former titleholder Dricus du Plessis and former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. Du Plessis opened as a -340 moneyline favourite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Usman a +270 underdog.
Key Facts:
• Du Plessis opened at -340 on DraftKings; Usman at +270 — DraftKings Network
• Some books have posted -350 / +285 on the same fight — MMA Mania
• Du Plessis is 23-3 (9-1 UFC); Usman is 21-4 (16-3 UFC) — UFC records
• The bout tops UFC Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026 at the Paycom Center — UFC
• Du Plessis is coming off an August 2025 title loss to Khamzat Chimaev; Usman is 0-1 at middleweight — UFC records
Why is Du Plessis such a big favourite?
The -340 line reflects a stylistic and physical mismatch, not just reputations. Du Plessis (23-3, 9-1 UFC) is a genuine middleweight who built an 11-fight win streak — including wins over Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, and Sean Strickland twice — before a one-sided decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev in August 2025. His volume and championship-round cardio have overwhelmed elite 185-pounders.
Usman (21-4, 16-3 UFC) is an all-time welterweight, but this is a size and timing question: 0-1 at middleweight, moving up at 39, off a rebound decision over Joaquin Buckley in June 2025. The books are betting Du Plessis’s five-round pace is more than Usman’s power and wrestling can hold off.
How to read the -340 price
American odds show the stake-to-win maths. A -340 favourite means risking $340 to win $100 — an implied probability near 77% before the book’s margin. Usman at +270 returns $270 on a $100 stake, roughly 27%. In decimal that is 1.29 and 3.70. Those figures sum to more than 100%; the overround is the book’s edge. At 1.29, Du Plessis offers little reward for real risk, which is why the live markets are the method and round props, not the moneyline.
Form, styles and the five-round question
Du Plessis’s path is familiar: smother the early rounds with volume, drag a decorated striker into deep water, and let the cardio gap widen. Usman’s route is narrower — takedown, top control, steal rounds on the cards. The variable is age and activity: Usman has fought sparingly and is giving up size to a bigger, younger man, and five rounds favour the fresher fighter.
Betting Outlook
Favourite: Dricus du Plessis at -340 (American) / 1.29 (decimal) on DraftKings; Usman is the +270 / 3.70 underdog.
Predicted result: Du Plessis by decision or late stoppage. The likeliest script is Du Plessis banking early rounds with volume and breaking Usman’s pace late; a five-round distance outcome is in play given his recent tendency to grind rather than blitz.
Props worth a look:
- Fight goes the distance — Du Plessis’s title-level fights have repeatedly reached the scorecards, and Usman’s durability means a finish is far from certain even as the underdog.
- Du Plessis by decision (method market) — a cleaner read on the favourite than the -340 moneyline, given his recent bouts have gone long.
- Usman by decision, not KO — if the upset lands, wrestling and control points are his realistic route; he has not finished a fight in years.
What to fade: Usman by knockout. At 39, moving up against a bigger man, a one-punch finish is the least likely path to an upset, and the market rarely reflects how thin that chance is.
Odds correct as of July 11, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: What are the odds for Du Plessis vs Usman?
A: Dricus du Plessis opened around -340 (1.29 decimal) as the favourite on DraftKings, with Kamaru Usman a +270 (3.70) underdog.
Q: When and where is UFC Oklahoma City?
A: On July 18, 2026 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with the middleweight main event topping the card.
Q: Can Usman beat Du Plessis?
A: Possible but priced as unlikely. Usman is 0-1 at middleweight and moving up at 39, so his route is wrestling and top control for a decision, not a finish.
For more UFC 329 reading, see our previews of McGregor vs Holloway and Pimblett vs Saint Denis.
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