US illegal online gambling put at $97.4bn, 4x AGA estimate

Two organisations have sized America’s illegal gambling market and disagree wildly. Gaming Compliance International (GCI), in a report published on August 10, 2026 for the Campaign for Fairer Gambling (CFG), says unlicensed online operators took $97.4 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) from US consumers in 2025. The American Gaming Association (AGA), the licensed industry’s trade body, put the whole US illegal market — online and land-based — at $53.9 billion on August 13, 2025. Both are already circulating in state legislatures.

What the $97.4 billion figure measures

The distinction that matters is handle versus revenue: handle is everything staked, GGR is what players lose. GCI’s $97.4 billion is GGR, online only, and its legal-market comparison excludes fantasy sports, sweepstakes products and social gaming. Scale is easy to misread when the unit changes: a separate global estimate put unregulated online gambling turnover at $5.9 trillion — a handle figure, not comparable to either number here.

Why the AGA’s number is four times smaller

The AGA’s $53.9 billion is a broader basket measured a narrower way: $18.6 billion of illegal iGaming, $5 billion of illegal sports betting and $30.3 billion from unregulated machines in bars and shops. Strip out the machines and its online estimate is roughly $23.6 billion, against GCI’s $97.4 billion for the same territory.

The methods diverge sharply. The AGA’s study, by The Innovation Group, rests largely on a survey of 2,454 US adults; GCI works from internet traffic analysis and machine learning. Surveys undercount behaviour people hide; traffic models struggle to separate real money from bots and non-US users.

“Illegal gambling operators are thriving at the expense of American consumers, siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments, and undercutting the efforts of the legal market,” said Bill Miller, President and CEO of the AGA. (American Gaming Association)

Who paid for the numbers

Neither estimate is a regulator’s count, and each arrives attached to an argument. The CFG, funded by Three Card Poker inventor Derek Webb, has long opposed gambling expansion, and a black market outgrowing the legal one is the evidence that position needs.

“The legal sector uses the presence of the illicit sector to demand legalisation, then asks for low tax and regulation to compete against the illicit sector,” Webb said. “Taking action against bad actors in the illicit sector is the solution and must be the priority for all stakeholders.” (Yogonet)

The AGA has its own interest: a large black market supports its case for a national crackdown. GCI sells market-monitoring technology to regulators, so a bigger measured problem is a bigger market for its product.

What happens next

GCI’s state-level work is what legislators will quote. Its “Loss Ratio” sets gambling GGR per head against income per head: 1.38% in 2025 where both online sports betting and online casino are legal, against 0.44% where neither is. Louisiana ranked highest for unregulated spend.

For consumers the point is unchanged: an unlicensed operator offers no dispute route, no audited game fairness and no self-exclusion protection. Britain runs a dedicated illegal markets unit inside its gambling regulator, and several US states have issued cease-and-desist orders to offshore sites. What is missing is an audited, independent number.

FAQ

Q: Is the illegal market really $97.4 billion?
A: One commissioned estimate, from traffic modelling, not independently audited. The AGA’s survey work implies far less.

Q: Why do the two reports differ so much?
A: Scope and method. GCI measures online GGR by traffic analysis; the AGA measures all illegal gaming, machines included, by survey.

Q: How much tax are states said to be losing?
A: The AGA put it at $15.3 billion a year, $9.5 billion of that from unregulated machines. GCI publishes no equivalent figure.

This article is analysis and information only. It is not betting or financial advice, and nothing in it should be read as a recommendation to gamble or to place any wager.

18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page.