Tempo vs Mercury WNBA odds, prediction & picks August 29

Toronto Tempo visit the Phoenix Mercury on August 29, 2026, at 10pm Eastern (02:00 UTC on August 30). DraftKings, via ESPN’s feed, has Phoenix -9.5 and -395. Both are eliminated; this is the last WNBA game before a 17-day World Cup shutdown.

Why Phoenix are 9.5-point favourites on a losing run

The home record is the oddity: Phoenix are 5-14 at home and 8-12 away. All four defeats came in Arizona between August 16 and 28, the last 80-73 to Washington. Their most recent win, 94-87, came at Los Angeles.

Phoenix score 83.7 and concede 87.7 (-4.0); Toronto 86.7 and 93.6 (-6.9). ESPN’s model gives Phoenix 73.5%. DraftKings’ -395 implies 79.8%; the two-way market prices to 104.2%, so no-vig leaves Phoenix near 76.6%, three points ahead of the model.

Toronto arrive without their top three

ESPN’s injury feed returns six entries a side. Toronto lose their leading scorer, rebounder and passer at once: Marina Mabrey (20.8 points), Maria Conde (4.6 rebounds) and Julie Allemand (5.6 assists).

• Toronto: Brittney Sykes (left foot, 18.6 points) and Aneesah Morrow (knee) out for the season; Nyara Sabally (calf) out, re-evaluated around September 18; Conde and Allemand out on World Cup contract suspensions; Mabrey out, re-evaluated in weeks per head coach Sandy Brondello — ESPN logs a right hip issue but its note says adductor, an ambiguous designation.
• Phoenix: Kelsey Plum (left lower leg) out until September 17; Kyara Linskens (Belgium) and Valeriane Ayayi out on suspended contracts, Jovana Nogic for the season; Marta Suarez ambiguous, listed out for concussion protocol but called questionable in the same note; Kahleah Copper (left ankle) day-to-day and probable, on a career-high 21.3 points.

That leaves Kiki Rice (12.5 points), Isabelle Harrison (12.3 and 6.4 rebounds) and Laura Juskaite (10.3) against Alyssa Thomas, averaging 14.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists.

The 17-day break is an unusual spot

ESPN’s calendar returns zero WNBA fixtures between August 31 and September 16. Phoenix sit 18 games off the lead, Toronto 20. The series is tied 1-1 and the visitor won both: Toronto 98-90 on May 20, Phoenix 89-80 on June 27.

The Betting Angle

Favourite: Phoenix at -395 on DraftKings, or 1.25 decimal — American odds show the stake needed to win $100; decimal the total return per unit. Spread -9.5 (-105), Toronto +9.5 (-115); total 174.5 at -110. Retrieved August 29, 2026.

Projected result: last-10 scoring (Phoenix 85.2, Toronto 83.5) blended with last-10 concessions (90.9 and 93.4) points to 89-87 and a 176.5 total; the scoring averages alone sum to 168.7. Phoenix 89, Toronto 82 — seven points, inside the 9.5 — sits between them.

Props priced near a coin flip, each with no recorded volume and $270-440 of liquidity, so quotes not consensus:

• Alyssa Thomas over 8.5 assists, 45.5¢ on Polymarket — season average 8.3 in 37 games.
• Kiki Rice over 15.5 points, 50.5¢ — against a 12.5 average in 23 games, a three-point usage jump.
• Isabelle Harrison over 14.5 points, 47.5¢ — average 12.3 in 27 games.

Most fragile price: the spread. Polymarket has Phoenix -9.5 at 49.5¢ on $123 of volume, the board’s thinnest line, asking a team beaten in its last four home games to win by 10. Its totals, 176.5 and 177.5, sit above DraftKings’ 174.5. Kalshi lists both sides under KXWNBAGAME-26AUG29TORPHX as active but returned no bid, ask or volume, so none is quoted.

Odds correct as of August 29, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: What time do Tempo and Mercury tip off?
A: 10pm Eastern on August 29, 2026 (02:00 UTC on August 30).

Q: Is Kelsey Plum playing?
A: No. ESPN lists her out with a left lower leg issue until September 17.

Q: Why no WNBA action until September 17?
A: The league pauses for the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup.

Live: ESPN game page. See also our 2026 WNBA championship market and Fever vs Liberty preview.

18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.