Crystal Palace vs Manchester City odds, prediction and picks

Crystal Palace host Manchester City in Premier League matchday two at Selhurst Park on Friday, August 28, 2026, kicking off at 20:00 BST (19:00 UTC). bet365 price City at 3/5 fractional — 1.60 decimal, -167 American, where a minus figure is the stake needed to win $100 — with the draw at 3/1 and Palace at 4/1. It is Pierre Sage’s first home game as Palace manager and Enzo Maresca’s first league trip to London since replacing Pep Guardiola.

Where the odds sit at Selhurst Park

The bet365 prices imply 62.5% City, 25% draw and 20% Palace — 107.5% in total, a 7.5% margin. Divide each by 1.075 and the true prices are 58.1%, 23.3% and 18.6%. Polymarket, which takes no margin on the price itself, has 57.5¢, 23.5¢ and 18.5¢: every leg within 0.6 percentage points.

That market is also unusually deep: $588,597 on the main book plus $191,813 across associated markets, the biggest Premier League match market this weekend.

Why the market is not pricing a repeat of last season

On the record, 58% looks light: City lead the all-time series 20-4 with five draws and won 3-0 home and away last season — Selhurst Park on December 14, 2025, the Etihad on May 13, 2026.

But the market is discounting evidence, not history. Both dugouts changed in the summer. City trailed Bournemouth to a Marcus Tavernier goal on August 23 and needed Marc Guéhi’s 84th-minute header and Joško Gvardiol’s stoppage-time winner to win Maresca’s first league game 2-1. Palace lost 2-0 at Everton but had 11 shots, three on target.

Team news and the Marc Guéhi subplot

Guéhi made 188 appearances for Palace, captaining them 101 times, before joining City in January 2026 for an initial £20 million. He returns as an opposition centre-back.

Palace lose Ismaïla Sarr (groin) and Chadi Riad, with Axel Disasi arriving on a season-long loan from Chelsea. “He’s able to play well with the ball and he’s able to defend in different positions in the back three, that’s why he’s a good addition for us,” Sage said of the defender. (Crystal Palace FC)

City are without Jeremy Doku (calf) and Elliot Anderson is a doubt. See also our Arsenal versus Manchester City Community Shield odds preview.

Match-Up & Markets

Favourite: Manchester City at 3/5 (1.60 decimal, -167 American) with bet365 as of August 27, 2026. The draw at 3/1 is the shortest secondary price.

Predicted result: Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1. The last six league meetings all produced three goals or more, and City score late but defend leads poorly. Palace have not scored in two matches.

Prop bets worth a look:

• Erling Haaland anytime scorer at 10/11 (1.91) with bet365 — eight goals in five league meetings with Palace, scoring on all four Selhurst Park visits (Sports Mole).
• Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals at 13/10 (2.30) with bet365 — the last six meetings all cleared three goals and both of last season’s finished 3-0.
• Haaland to score two or more at 5/1 (6.00) with Ladbrokes — a lean, not a conviction call; his five games against Palace include a hat-trick and a brace.

What to fade: Manchester City to win to nil at 2/1 (3.00) with bet365 — a 33.3% implied clean sheet from a defence that conceded first in Maresca’s opener. The 0-3 correct score at 14/1 prices last season, not this year’s teams.

Odds correct as of August 28, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: What time is Crystal Palace versus Manchester City?
A: 20:00 BST (19:00 UTC) on Friday, August 28, 2026, at Selhurst Park.

Q: Why are City only around 58% after two 3-0 wins last season?
A: Both clubs changed manager in the summer, leaving the market one competitive fixture of evidence per side.

Q: Which book holds the most money on this fixture?
A: Polymarket’s three-way market, at $588,597. Longer-dated books run larger, as our look at Arsenal at 42.5¢ in the 2027 title market shows.

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