Tommy Fleetwood opened the RBC Canadian Open 2026 as the 12-1 outright co-favourite and enters Sunday’s final round at TPC Toronto in contention — chasing leader Jackson Suber on the same course where Nick Taylor’s playoff putt denied him in 2023.
RBC Canadian Open odds installed Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick as 12-1 co-favourites at DraftKings before the tournament, with Sam Burns at 13-1 — futures where 12-1 means a $100 stake returns $1,200 profit. The PGA Tour event runs June 11–14, 2026 over the par-70 North Course at TPC Toronto, and the final-round storyline writes itself: Fleetwood, chasing his first PGA Tour win since his 2025 FedEx Cup run, is back in the hunt on the very course where he lost the 2023 edition in heartbreaking fashion.
Key Facts:
• Pre-tournament outright odds: Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick both 12-1, Sam Burns 13-1, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark 24-1 — DraftKings via CBS Sports
• Purse: $9.8 million over the par-70, 7,389-yard TPC Toronto North Course — CBS Sports
• Defending champion: Nick Taylor, who won the 2023 playoff with a 72-foot eagle putt over Fleetwood — CBS Sports
• Pro debutant Ben James led early before Jackson Suber moved in front after round three — Sky Sports
• Event dates: June 11–14, 2026, Caledon, Ontario — CBS Sports
Why are Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick the favourites?
The market’s read is form plus pedigree. Fleetwood arrived off a runner-up finish at the Memorial Tournament built on sharp final-round iron play — exactly what TPC Toronto rewards. Fitzpatrick, the other 12-1 pick, won three times in four starts earlier in the run, though analysts flagged a cooling putter. At those prices neither is a short favourite — 12-1 implies a single-digit win probability — reflecting a field that also features Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and a resurgent Brooks Koepka at 28-1.
The history hanging over the final round
No storyline matters more to the outright market than Fleetwood’s. In 2023, Nick Taylor became the first Canadian to win his national open since 1954 by holing a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole — over Fleetwood, who returns still seeking the elusive first PGA Tour title his ranking has long outpaced. Taylor is back as defending champion. This is where understanding golf betting games — outrights, top-10 finishes, three-balls and head-to-heads — matters, because the outright is rarely the highest-value way into a contender at 12-1.
What’s the final-round picture?
Through 54 holes the board had reshuffled: pro debutant Ben James set the early pace before Jackson Suber moved to the front after Moving Day, with Fleetwood in the chasing pack. A surprise 54-hole leader keeps the pre-tournament favourites live on the outright and makes the top-finish markets more interesting than the futures price alone. For how books price a favourite against a wide field elsewhere, see our US Open 2026 Kalshi value analysis and our Golden Knights vs Hurricanes markets read.
Match-Up & Markets
Favourite: Tommy Fleetwood at 12-1 (DraftKings, pre-tournament) shared top billing with Matt Fitzpatrick, but the live final-round picture has Jackson Suber leading and Fleetwood chasing — so the outright price overstates how settled the tournament is.
Predicted result: a tight finish with Fleetwood in the mix — grounded in his Memorial form and course familiarity, tempered by the reality that a 54-hole leader rarely gets caught by a 12-1 shot without help.
Props the market is watching:
- Fleetwood top-5 finish — for a contender at 12-1 to win outright, the top-finish market is where his form is priced with less variance than the outright.
- Sam Burns top-10 — three top-10s in 2026 at premium venues (Pebble Beach, Augusta, Muirfield Village) make the placement market a steadier read than his 13-1 outright.
What to fade: chasing the pre-tournament 12-1 outright on Fleetwood now that a 54-hole leader sits ahead of him. The futures price was set before Suber took control; backing it in the final round means paying a stale number against an unfavourable leaderboard.
Odds correct as of June 13, 2026 (pre-tournament). Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: Who is favourite to win the RBC Canadian Open 2026?
A: Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick opened as 12-1 co-favourites at DraftKings, with Sam Burns at 13-1. By the final round, Jackson Suber led the tournament with Fleetwood among the chasers.
Q: Where is the RBC Canadian Open played?
A: The 2026 edition is at the par-70, 7,389-yard North Course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley in Caledon, Ontario, June 11–14, with a $9.8 million purse.
Q: Why does Fleetwood have history at this event?
A: He lost the 2023 RBC Canadian Open when Nick Taylor — the defending champion in 2026 — holed a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole to win.
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