The Open Championship 2026 returns to Royal Birkdale from July 16–19, and defending champion Scottie Scheffler heads the outright market at +500 on FanDuel, with Rory McIlroy next at +900 and Southport local favourite Tommy Fleetwood at +1400.
Open Championship 2026 odds install Scheffler as the clear favourite at +500 on the American scale (6.00 in decimal, where the figure shows total return per unit staked) — a 16.7% implied probability before the bookmaker’s margin. McIlroy, the 2014 Open champion at Royal Liverpool and back-to-back Masters winner, follows at +900, with Fleetwood (+1400), Jon Rahm (+1800), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1900) and Xander Schauffele (+2000) completing the head of a market that opens for its final major of the year on Thursday, July 16.
Key Facts:
• Scheffler is the +500 outright favourite on FanDuel as of July 8, 2026, defending the Claret Jug he won in 2025 — CBS Sports
• McIlroy sits second at +900, chasing a second Open title 12 years after his 2014 win — CBS Sports
• Englishmen Fleetwood (+1400) and Fitzpatrick (+1900) lead the home challenge at Royal Birkdale — Sportsbook Review
• The Open runs July 16–19, 2026 at Royal Birkdale, Southport — its first Open since 2017 — Golf Digest
Why Scheffler at +500 sets the market’s ceiling
A +500 favourite in a 150-plus player field is as short as modern major golf gets, and Scheffler has earned it as defending Open champion and world No. 1, fresh from heading the Genesis Scottish Open market in his links warm-up. The counterargument is structural — draw bias, weather splits and bounce variance make short outright prices harder to justify at an Open than at a US parkland major, which is why value-focused analysis at Birkdale usually starts further down the board.
The home challenge and the Birkdale factor
Royal Birkdale hosts its first Open since Jordan Spieth’s 2017 win, and its reputation as the fairest of the Open rota courses — flat fairways between the dunes, fewer blind shots — historically narrows the gap between elite ball-strikers and the field. Fleetwood, who grew up in Southport and shot a course-record 63 at Birkdale, carries the home-crowd storyline at +1400; Fitzpatrick at +1900 offers the other English angle. McIlroy’s +900 reflects both his major form and the market’s memory of his near-misses at recent Opens.
How the golf betting games work at an Open
Outrights are only the headline market among the golf betting games bookmakers price for a major: each-way terms (typically paying eight to 10 places at an Open), top-10 and top-20 finish markets, first-round leader, three-ball and two-ball matchups, and nationality specials such as top English player. In a field this deep, the place-heavy markets — each-way, top-10s — historically offer more forgiving structures than outright-only positions, because links variance produces leaderboard churn across four days.
The Betting Angle
Favourite: Scottie Scheffler at +500 (American) / 6.00 (decimal) on FanDuel — a 16.7% implied probability. McIlroy +900, Fleetwood +1400, Rahm +1800, Fitzpatrick +1900, Schauffele +2000. Prices as of July 8, 2026.
Predicted result: Scheffler in contention on Sunday but the Claret Jug going to the +900–+2000 band — the model leans McIlroy, with a top-five finish for Fleetwood in front of the home crowd. Grounding: links draw bias and weather variance have historically been unkind to short-priced Open favourites, while Birkdale’s fairness rewards the elite ball-striking tier just below the head of the market.
Markets worth a look:
- Fleetwood top-10 finish — a Birkdale course-record holder with home-crowd support; his links results consistently outperform his outright price tier.
- McIlroy at +900 rather than the favourite — the 2014 champion’s price offers nearly double Scheffler’s payout in a format where the favourite’s structural edge is thinnest.
What to fade: Scheffler outright at +500. Not because of his game — because links variance, draw bias and a 150-player field make any sub-6.00 price a structurally poor risk-reward proposition at an Open, whatever the name attached.
Odds correct as of July 8, 2026. Informational analysis only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: When and where is the Open Championship 2026?
A: July 16–19, 2026 at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England — the course’s first Open since 2017.
Q: Who is favourite to win the Open Championship 2026?
A: Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion, at +500 on FanDuel as of July 8, 2026, ahead of Rory McIlroy at +900.
Q: How did the favourites fare in last week’s links warm-up?
A: Scheffler also headed the market at the Genesis Scottish Open — see our Scottish Open 2026 odds preview for the form lines carrying into Birkdale.
For Scheffler’s recent stroke-play dominance, see our Travelers Championship 2026 odds analysis. Full 13-pick breakdown via Golf Digest.
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