Reigning champion Alex Palou opens as the +250 American (3.50 decimal) outright favourite on DraftKings for the 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 on May 24, 2026, with Pato O’Ward at +650 (7.50) and David Malukas the longest of the top three at +800 (9.00).
The 2026 Indy 500 betting market has crystallised around the three drivers who entered Sunday with the most plausible paths to Victory Lane: pole-sitter Alex Palou, who is bidding for back-to-back wins after the 2025 victory; McLaren’s Pato O’Ward, who has finished second twice; and Team Penske’s David Malukas, runner-up in 2025. Odds quoted are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 18, 2026 (FOX Sports Motorsports Insider). American +/- format indicates how much you win on a $100 stake (positive numbers) or how much you must risk to win $100 (negative numbers); decimal odds show the full payout per $1 stake including the stake itself.
Key Facts:
• Alex Palou +250 (3.50 decimal) — DraftKings outright favourite as of May 18, 2026.
• Pato O’Ward +650 (7.50 decimal) — second favourite.
• David Malukas +800 (9.00 decimal) — third favourite, Team Penske.
• 27-point Palou lead in the 2026 IndyCar Series Drivers’ Championship heading into Indianapolis.
• Palou has won three of the first six races on the 2026 IndyCar schedule.
• 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 — race date Sunday, May 24, 2026 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Why Palou opens shortest
Palou’s price reflects three things: pole position (his second consecutive Indy 500 pole), a championship lead of 27 points after six rounds, and a 2025 race-win history that includes leading more laps than any driver in the field. Chip Ganassi Racing has won four of the last six races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and Palou’s qualifying pace this year was set without a tow — a sign of the Honda-powered car’s raw speed advantage in race trim. The +250 / 3.50 price implies a 28.6% probability of winning, which is broadly aligned with predictive simulation outputs from the Sportsline IndyCar model.
The case for Pato O’Ward and Malukas
O’Ward’s +650 / 7.50 price implies a 13.3% probability and rests on two career runner-up finishes (2022 and 2024). Malukas, racing for Team Penske after a late switch from Meyer Shank Racing, brings a 2025 second-place finish at this race; Penske’s race-day pit operation remains the IndyCar gold standard. Josef Newgarden, two-time Indy 500 winner, sits behind the top three with last-two-oval-wins form at Nashville and Phoenix.
For wider market-call context on the betting calendar, see our coverage of the French Open 2026 outrights and the ECF Game 1 preview.
“Palou is going to be hard to beat. He is hard to beat at every race.”
— Bob Pockrass, Motorsports Insider, FOX Sports (FOX Sports, May 2026)
Picks & Predictions
Favourite: Alex Palou +250 American (3.50 decimal) to win outright on DraftKings, with a +250 price implying a 28.6% probability of the back-to-back. Palou enters with pole position, three IndyCar wins in 2026 already, and a 27-point championship lead.
Predicted result: Palou wins, Pato O’Ward second, David Malukas third. Palou converts pole into a stage-race tempo set, with O’Ward running long stints in the middle of the race to leapfrog through pit-cycle traffic. Malukas rounds out the podium on Penske strategy.
Prop bets worth a look:
- Alex Palou top-3 finish at around -210 American (1.48 decimal) on DraftKings — historical pole-sitters at Indy convert to a top-three finish at roughly a 35% rate, and Palou’s race pace adds an edge.
- Pato O’Ward top-5 finish at around -135 American (1.74 decimal) — McLaren’s two-car strategy gives O’Ward a tactical floor; he has finished top-5 in three of the last four Indy 500s.
- Josef Newgarden to lead a lap at +130 American (2.30 decimal) — two-time Indy 500 winner with last-two-oval-wins form at Nashville and Phoenix.
What to fade: any “Palou-to-lead-the-most-laps” parlay leg at shortened prices (sub +140). Palou’s pace is real, but the Indy 500’s stint-cycle structure spreads lap-leadership across multiple drivers most years; the juice is too short for the variance.
Odds correct as of May 18, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: When is the 2026 Indianapolis 500?
A: Sunday, May 24, 2026 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It is the 110th running of the race.
Q: Who is the betting favourite to win?
A: Alex Palou at +250 American (3.50 decimal) on DraftKings as of May 18, 2026. He is the pole-sitter and the reigning 2025 champion.
Q: What does +250 mean in American odds?
A: A +250 price means a $100 stake returns a $250 profit ($350 total) if the bet wins. In decimal odds, this is 3.50 — for every $1 staked, the total payout is $3.50 including the original stake.
Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.
