Nurmagomedov vs Song UFC Shanghai odds and prediction

Bovada priced Nurmagomedov at -675 and Song at +475 at 10:31 UTC on August 27, 2026. In American odds a minus number is the stake needed to win $100 and a plus number the profit on $100, so -675 is 1.15 decimal and +475 is 5.75. They meet over five rounds at the SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, 2026, walkouts around 13:15 UTC.

What the Shanghai line actually prices

The moneyline implies 87.1% for Nurmagomedov and 17.4% for Song; strip the 4.5% overround and it sits near 83-17. The round handicap says it differently: Nurmagomedov -5.5 rounds at -145, Song +5.5 at +110, a line built on the favourite banking rounds rather than ending them. That is defensible. Eleven of his 20 wins went to the cards, the last two unanimous.

The finish that has never worked on Song Yadong

Here the records stop matching. Submission is Nurmagomedov’s most productive finish — seven of his 20 wins, more than triple his knockout tally. Song has never lost by submission, not once.

Nor are his two stoppage defeats durability problems. Cory Sandhagen beat him by doctor stoppage on a cut in September 2022; the only clean knockout came at regional level in China in May 2016. Song has never been finished by strikes in the UFC.

The mirror holds the other way: Nurmagomedov has never been finished at all. So Song’s +475 does not depend on surviving. It depends on the power that finished nine opponents landing on a man nobody has put away.

Form, the common opponent and the Shanghai factor

Deiveson Figueiredo has faced both. Nurmagomedov outpointed him at UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, a catchweight bout after Figueiredo missed weight. Song submitted the same man with a guillotine at 4:42 of round two in Macau on May 30, 2026, taking Performance of the Night, finishing the opponent Nurmagomedov could only outscore.

The counterweight: on that same January night, Song lost a decision to Sean O’Malley. Nurmagomedov holds a two-inch reach edge, 69 to 67, and trains at Eagles MMA and American Kickboxing Academy. Song, born in Harbin, headlines at home.

Match-Up & Markets

Favourite: Nurmagomedov at -675 American / 1.15 decimal on Bovada; round handicap -5.5 (-145), total 4.5 rounds. Odds pulled 10:31 UTC, August 27, 2026.

Predicted result: Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision after five rounds, past 4.5. The reasoning matches the bookmaker’s — 11 decision wins in 20 against an opponent who has never been submitted.

Props the market is pricing:

• Over 4.5 rounds at -240 — about 66% de-vigged, matching a favourite who has stopped nine of 20 opponents against a man with two stoppage losses in 33 fights.
• Nurmagomedov by decision — the most represented outcome in his record, and the direct expression of that -240 total.
• Song by knockout — the shape of the +475. Nine of his 23 wins are knockouts, the only finish that troubles elite bantamweights.

Weakest angle: Nurmagomedov by submission. Tempting on a seven-submission record, but Song has zero submission losses and Nurmagomedov has not submitted anyone since March 2022; four of his five wins since have gone to the cards.

Odds correct as of August 27, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: When is the fight?
A: Saturday, August 29, 2026 in Shanghai, walkouts around 13:15 UTC.

Q: Who is favourite?
A: Nurmagomedov at -675 on Bovada, Song at +475 — about 83-17 after the margin.

Q: Where do both rank?
A: Nurmagomedov third and Song sixth in the official UFC rankings, updated August 25, 2026. Petr Yan is champion.

More UFC markets: Hernandez vs Rodrigues and Dern vs Robertson at UFC 330.

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