Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have both withdrawn injured from the Cincinnati Open, flattening the ATP Masters 1000 outright market. Alexander Zverev leads at +400, with four players inside 10-1.
The Cincinnati Open runs from August 13 to 23, 2026 at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio, without the two men who have owned the Masters 1000 circuit. Sinner, the world No. 1, withdrew with right knee inflammation; Alcaraz, the world No. 2 and defending champion, has a wrist injury. The result is an open 96-player draw with nobody shorter than +400.
Key Facts:
• Sinner (right knee) and Alcaraz (right wrist) both withdrew; Alcaraz was defending champion — Cincinnati Open
• Zverev is favourite at +400 on DraftKings, an implied 20% — DraftKings via RotoWire, August 13, 2026
• Of 14 ATP Masters 1000 events from January 2025 to June 2026, Sinner won six and Alcaraz three — BetMGM
• The draw carries $9,415,725 across 96 players, all 32 seeds given byes into round two — Cincinnati Open
Why the men’s draw is wide open
Across the 14 ATP Masters 1000 tournaments staged between January 2025 and June 2026, Sinner won six titles and Alcaraz three; the rest of the tour combined for five. Removing both strips two-thirds of the recent Masters-winning capacity out of one draw. The board has compressed rather than crowned a new short favourite: Zverev’s +400 implies just 20%.
Where the outright market sits
As of August 13, 2026, DraftKings priced Zverev at +400, Ben Shelton +550, Novak Djokovic +600, Taylor Fritz +900 and Rafael Jodar +1000. Odds are American format: +400 means a $100 stake returns $400 profit, equivalent to 5.00 decimal, the total return per unit staked. Books disagree — BetMGM had Fritz +800 and Shelton +900 the same day.
Zverev’s case is strongest on paper: the 2021 champion made the semi-finals on his next three visits, is 16-3 in his last four appearances here, and won this year’s Roland Garros. The caveat is recent — he lost his opening match at the Canadian Open to Tallon Griekspoor. Djokovic’s number may be better: the three-time champion is unbeaten in his last 10 matches in Cincinnati, dating to 2020.
Round one shocks and the second-round picture
Opening day produced one significant casualty: Martin Landaluce beat Jack Draper 6-3, 7-5, the Briton serving 12 double faults. The results that matter most went to form, though. Cameron Norrie beat Dino Prizmic 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 and now meets Zverev, who is 7-0 against him at tour level. Thiago Agustin Tirante survived Jan Choinski 7-6(9), 6-7(7), 7-6(4) in 176 minutes, and is rewarded with Djokovic. Round two runs on August 15 and 16.
Fitness is a live variable. “My body wasn’t right. It was tough to go from D.C. and then play a day later,” Fritz said of his Montreal exit. (Cincinnati Open)
Picks & Predictions
Favourite: Zverev at +400 (American) / 5.00 (decimal) on DraftKings, an implied 20%. Shelton is next at +550 / 6.50, Djokovic at +600 / 7.00.
Predicted result: Djokovic to win the title, Zverev the likeliest final opponent. A 10-match Cincinnati streak and three titles read better at +600 than Zverev at +400 after a first-match exit in Canada.
Props worth a look:
- Zverev in straight sets vs Norrie — seven wins from seven meetings, and only 14 service breaks conceded in his last four Cincinnati runs.
- Djokovic in straight sets vs Tirante — Tirante needed 176 minutes and three tiebreaks to survive round one.
- Shelton each-way at +550 — a quarter-finalist here in 2024 and 2025, losing to Zverev both times; Zverev is in the opposite half now.
What to fade: Zverev outright at +400 — a 20% implied chance in a field the market itself cannot separate, unmarked by his opening-round loss in Canada. Longshot futures on eliminated players, such as Draper at +5000, are dead money.
Odds correct as of August 13, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: Why are Sinner and Alcaraz missing the Cincinnati Open?
A: Sinner withdrew with right knee inflammation, Alcaraz with a wrist injury. Both are managing workload before the US Open.
Q: Who is favourite for the 2026 men’s title?
A: Zverev, at +400 on DraftKings as of August 13, 2026. He also led the National Bank Open 2026 outright market after similar withdrawals.
Q: When is the second round?
A: August 15 and 16, 2026. All 32 seeds had byes. Sinner still heads the US Open 2026 outright market.
Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.
