Magomed Ankalaev is a heavy favourite against short-notice replacement Bogdan Guskov in the UFC Abu Dhabi main event on July 25, 2026 — and the market has drifted further towards the former champion since the fight was made.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov tops the card at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, on Saturday, July 25, 2026, with the main card around noon Eastern on Paramount+. Second-ranked Ankalaev is priced at -535 at DraftKings Sportsbook, ninth-ranked Guskov at +400, as of July 20, 2026. Guskov took the bout on 14 days’ notice after Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew injured.
Key Facts:
• Ankalaev -535, Guskov +400 at DraftKings Sportsbook, as of July 20, 2026 — SportsLine
• Opened at -500 / +340, so the favourite has shortened — Odds Shark
• Records: Ankalaev 21-2-1 (1 no contest); Guskov 18-3-1, 13 first-round stoppages — Odds Shark
• Ankalaev: 3.56 significant strikes per minute, 52% accuracy, 86% takedown defence — UFC Stats
How to read the Ankalaev vs Guskov price
Odds here are American: a minus number is the stake needed to win $100, a plus number the profit on $100. Ankalaev at -535 is 1.19 in decimal (total return per unit staked); Guskov at +400 is 5.00 — roughly 84% and 20% implied.
That gap has widened. The bout opened -500 / +340, per Odds Shark, so money has come in on the favourite, not the short-notice underdog — the opposite of the usual late-replacement pattern.
Form, styles and the short-notice factor
Ankalaev arrives off the worst night of his career: a knockout loss to Alex Pereira inside 80 seconds at UFC 320, ending a 14-fight unbeaten run and costing him the title. His profile is built on control rather than damage — 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, 86% takedown defence, 3.56 significant strikes per minute, per UFC Stats.
Guskov is the mirror image: all 18 wins by finish, 13 in round one, unbeaten in his last five and most recently a draw with Jan Blachowicz. His weakness is the area Ankalaev exploits — Odds Shark lists his takedown defence at 57%.
Guskov took it in under a minute. “I don’t need 24 hours to get to the scales and find out whether I can make weight or not, as some other guys,” he told Red Corner MMA, via Yahoo Sports.
What the rest of the card offers
The co-main pits Ramazan Temirov against Steve Erceg at flyweight, Temirov opening -150 (1.67 decimal) and former title challenger Erceg +130 (2.30). Sam Patterson opened -450 against Santiago Ponzinibbio, per MMAOddsBreaker — a card of short-priced favourites, as our breakdowns of Du Plessis vs Usman odds and prediction and Fiziev vs Torres at UFC Baku set out.
The betting angle
Favourite: Magomed Ankalaev at -535 American / 1.19 decimal on DraftKings Sportsbook; Guskov +400 / 5.00, as of July 20, 2026.
Predicted result: Ankalaev by decision or late TKO, rounds four to five. The grappling gap decides it — 86% takedown defence for Ankalaev (UFC Stats) against 57% for Guskov (Odds Shark) — and a fighter on 14 days’ notice rarely banks championship rounds.
Props the data points towards:
- Fight does not reach the final bell — all 18 Guskov wins are finishes, 13 inside a round, and Ankalaev was stopped in 80 seconds at UFC 320.
- Ankalaev by decision — his 3.56 significant strikes per minute (UFC Stats) is a control-and-accumulate number, not a knockout number.
- Erceg in the co-main at +130 / 2.30 — an underdog price despite him chasing a third straight win, which value-minded bettors will note.
One to fade: Ankalaev’s moneyline as a parlay anchor at -535. The return is 19 cents on the dollar, and a fighter off an 80-second knockout defeat facing 13 first-round stoppages is not the risk-free leg the price implies.
Odds correct as of July 21, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: When and where is UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?
A: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at the Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi; main card around noon Eastern on Paramount+.
Q: Why is Bogdan Guskov fighting Magomed Ankalaev?
A: He stepped in on 14 days’ notice after Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew injured; Guskov had been booked against Jan Blachowicz at UFC Belgrade on August 1, 2026.
Q: How have the odds moved since the fight was made?
A: Ankalaev opened -500 and Guskov +340, per Odds Shark; as of July 20, 2026 they sat at -535 and +400.
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