The International 2026 odds: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION

The International 2026, the fifteenth edition of Valve’s Dota 2 world championship, hit the halfway point of its group stage on August 14, 2026 with two teams still perfect. Both are 3-0 in a modified Swiss bracket where only the top three of 16 teams reach the playoffs directly. Thunderpick priced the roster then known as PARIVISION at +300 pre-event; Polymarket now has TEAM VISION at 28.5%.

Two unbeaten teams, already paired

TEAM VISION took top spot by beating BoomBoys 2-0 in round three, a third straight win. Team Spirit matched them, closing 2-1 after two clean 2-0 results. Spirit have dropped one game to TEAM VISION’s two, the tiebreaker separating identical records.

Five teams sit at 2-1, led on games by Team Liquid and Iron Wing (both 5-3). Team Falcons, an +800 shot pre-event, have stumbled to 1-2. Round four pairs the two 3-0 sides on August 15 at 13:00 CST.

“My motivation isn’t tied to tournaments. My love for this game is what drives me to keep going,” Spirit carry Yatoro told BLAST.tv in May 2025. Spirit reached Shanghai via the merged European qualifier.

The prize pool is small — but it is growing again

The pool is genuinely small: $2,965,078 against a $1,600,000 base. There is no Battle Pass this year; 30% of Supporters Club Season 13 bundle sales has added $1,365,078 so far.

That is 92.6% below the $40,018,195 record set in 2021. But the collapse framing does not survive the last three years: TI 2026 is up 2.9% on 2025’s $2,881,791 and 6.8% on 2024’s $2,776,566 — a third straight year near $2.9m, a post-Battle-Pass floor holding steady rather than sliding.

OG’s comeback has gone badly wrong

The clearest failure so far is OG. Their return after four years away was a qualifying-cycle story; they are now 0-3 and 0-6 in games, without a map win. They meet HULIGANI (0-3, 1-6) on August 15 at 10:00 CST, deciding which of them keeps a route out of the group.

Picks & Predictions

Favourite: TEAM VISION at +300 (American) / 4.00 (decimal) with Thunderpick on August 10, 2026 — American odds show profit on a $100 stake, decimal the total return per unit. Polymarket, checked August 14, 2026, has them at 28.5%, about 3.51 decimal, on roughly $1.07m of volume. Team Spirit have moved from +800 (11.1% implied) to 17.0%, the field’s biggest riser.

Predicted result: Team Spirit 2-1 TEAM VISION on August 15. Spirit have conceded one game in three matches; TEAM VISION needed a third game in two of theirs.

Markets worth watching:

• Total maps over 2.5 — TEAM VISION have gone the distance in two of three matches (Liquipedia).
• Team Spirit top-three finish — three of 16 qualify directly, and Spirit hold the best game record at 6-1 (Liquipedia).
• HULIGANI to beat OG — HULIGANI have one game win to OG’s zero, both playing to survive (Liquipedia).

What to fade: the OG outright at +6600 (Thunderpick, August 10, 2026). They are 0-6 in games and must survive an elimination round first; Polymarket does not price them above 0.5%. The number tempts precisely because the market has written them off.

Odds correct as of August 14, 2026. Informational analysis only — not financial or betting advice. Esports audiences skew young: the legal betting age is 18 in the UK and 21 in most US states. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.

FAQ

Q: When do The International 2026 playoffs start?
A: The group stage runs to August 16, 2026; the double-elimination playoffs run August 20-23 at Shanghai’s Oriental Sports Center.

Q: How much does the TI 2026 winner receive?
A: 42.5% of the $2,965,078 pool, roughly $1,260,128. Second place takes 13%, about $385,505.

Q: Who is favourite to win The International 2026?
A: TEAM VISION, at 28.5% on Polymarket on August 14, 2026, ahead of Team Spirit at 17.0%.

Standings and match times: Liquipedia group stage page.

18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.