Entain: doubling machine games duty would close shops

Stella David took Entain's third-quarter call at 9:00am BST on October 15, 2026, with the numbers already public and the tax argument still open. Doubling machine games duty from 20% to 40% would add about £100 million a year to the UK shops of Ladbrokes and Coral, which hold UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) licences, she had told the prime minister on September 11, and Chancellor John Healey is due to deliver the Budget on October 28.

No rate has been announced. HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) still charges standard machine games duty at 20% for 2026 to 2027, on plays of no more than £5. Entain, tax resident in the UK and the owner of those shops, wants the reported doubling read as a threat to the high street and to the tax take.

What the September 11 letter asks ministers to believe

The open letter is addressed to Prime Minister Andy Burnham and cites his Makerfield Test, the claim that policy should reach places Westminster overlooks. Entain says more than 12,000 of its UK staff work in about 2,300 Ladbrokes and Coral shops, three of them in Makerfield.

David's £100 million is Entain's estimate for its own UK shops. The closure totals come from EY, commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC).

In the extreme, that EY work puts about £1 billion of stakes outside legal retail. Frontier Economics, also cited, puts illegal land-based play at £1.6 billion a year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says behavioural responses would reduce Budget 2025's gambling-tax yield by about one-third, including £500 million by 2029-30.

None of that is a decision. The industry commissioned the closure model.

Where the protection argument holds

Shop staff, David writes, are the safeguard where harm falls on a minority: age checks, spotting harmful play, self-exclusion. The lowest paid earn £13 an hour, and 2,570 are under 25.

A UKGC-licensed shop is supposed to do those things. A higher duty is not shown to increase harm. The sharper claim is the stake that leaves. An illegal bet skips the age check and pays no duty. The Commission has already made illegal gambling an enforcement priority, including through its Illegal Markets unit.

Ministers are being asked to weigh that counter against a tax line. The letter does not separate the customer from the company.

A third quarter that grew, and a call that hedged

October's trading statement is easier to audit. Group net gaming revenue (NGR) rose 2% in the third quarter at constant currency, excluding discontinued Central and Eastern Europe operations. UK and Ireland NGR rose 8%, online there rose 14%, and retail rose 1%, or 3% like for like once closures are stripped out.

"We strongly urge the UK Government to carefully consider any further gambling tax increases which would threaten the viability of many shops, jobs and livelihoods," said Stella David, chief executive of Entain. (Entain)

September 28 guidance still has online NGR up 4% to 6%, and underlying EBITDA excluding parent fees at the lower end of £910 million to £960 million. Remote gaming duty is already 40%, from 21% on April 1, 2026, and the letter says most remote betting moves to 25% in April 2027. Machine games duty is the retail rate left alone.

On the analyst call she said 630 betting shops had already closed across the industry in the previous year. She told analysts the same analysis meant about 1,500 closures and 16,000 jobs if the rate went to 40%, said the Treasury's take would fall, and said Entain would expect to gain retail share if taxes rose.

A firm can warn that a duty shrinks the market and still expect a larger share of what remains. The call fits that reading. It does not make the EY model official.

What the 20% rate actually covers

Machine games duty taxes net takings at 5% (20p and a £10 prize, or less), 20% up to £5 a play, or 25% if a play can cost more. Those are the 2026 to 2027 rates.

April to July 2026 liabilities were £203 million, and £201 million of that was at the 20% rate.

• Published rate: the standard rate for 2026 to 2027 is still 20%.
• No decision: neither the letter nor the October 15 statement records one.
• Entain's figure: £100 million, for its own UK shops.
• Industry model: 1,470 shops, 15,900 jobs and about £120 million less tax, from EY via the BGC, not the OBR.
• The date: the Budget is October 28, 2026.

Closures under taxes already in force are not a theory. Betfred's plan to close 132 shops as earlier UK gambling tax rises took hold is the high-street record this warning has to sit beside.

This article is informational analysis only and is not gambling or financial advice. Figures are as attributed in the text.

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