BMW Championship 2026 odds: Bellerive prediction and picks

The 2026 BMW Championship runs from August 20 to 23 at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, the second FedEx Cup Playoff event. DraftKings priced Scheffler at +300 to win outright as of August 16, 2026, hours after his eight-shot victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Fifty players qualified on points, there is no 36-hole cut, and 20 will be eliminated by Sunday evening.

What is at stake in the second playoff event

The 50-man field confirmed by the PGA Tour is set purely by FedEx Cup standings after Memphis. Jordan Spieth (52nd), Max Homa (53rd) and Corey Conners (59th) fell short. Finish inside the top 30 on Sunday and a player reaches the Tour Championship, which begins on August 27. That elimination line, rather than the $20 million purse, drives Sunday pricing here — as it did at the FedEx Cup bubble at the Wyndham Championship.

Why Bellerive shapes the market

Bellerive is a par 70 with only two par 5s, and both are enormous: the 8th at 613 yards and the 17th at 624. The 16th is a 237-yard par 3. Creeping bentgrass covers fairways and greens, and the course record of 260 belongs to Justin Rose, set at the 2018 PGA Championship. Rose is in this week’s field. So few realistic birdie holes tends to compress leaderboards, one reason the outright board is unusually flat behind the favourite.

Form lines out of Memphis

Scheffler closed at 17 under at TPC Southwind, eight clear of Si Woo Kim. Alex Noren and Sam Burns shared third at eight under, Wyndham Clark and Sungjae Im a shot back. McIlroy finished 25 shots behind the winner.

“Statistics are one thing, but being able to win golf tournaments is another, and this is a lot better feeling than having statistically a good week,” said Scottie Scheffler after the win. (Yahoo Sports)

Betting Outlook

Favourite: Scheffler at +300 American (4.00 decimal) at DraftKings as of August 16, 2026. American odds show the profit on a $100 stake; decimal odds show the total return per unit. That implies roughly 25%, and Kalshi’s contract on the same outcome traded at 24%. He is defending champion, having won the 2025 edition at 15 under.

What the market expects: a winning score of 13 to 15 under. The last three BMW Championships were won at 15, 12 and 17 under, and Bellerive’s par-70 setup caps birdie supply.

Markets the board is pricing tightly:

• Scheffler top-five finish — bookmakers make him a short price here after the best putting week of his career at Southwind.
• Justin Rose top-20 — he holds the Bellerive course record of 260, the only man in the field with a competitive low round there.
• Alex Noren outright at +7000 — DraftKings’ price follows a T3 in Memphis, a T7 at the Wyndham and a top 20 at the Open Championship.

Where the market looks stretched: McIlroy at +1375. That reads as a reputation price rather than a form price, ranking him ahead of players who beat him by 20 strokes last week. His Open Championship odds at Royal Birkdale showed a similar gap.

Odds correct as of August 16, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.

FAQ

Q: How many players make the BMW Championship field?
A: Fifty, all qualified on FedEx Cup points. There is no 36-hole cut.

Q: How many advance to the Tour Championship?
A: The top 30 after Sunday, meaning 20 of the 50 are eliminated.

Q: Has Bellerive hosted a major?
A: Yes, the 2018 PGA Championship, won by Brooks Koepka. It last held the BMW Championship in 2008.

18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.