Jack Draper returns from a two-month layoff as a -239 favourite at DraftKings — but four matches in 100 days is a thin base for that price.
Terence Atmane and Jack Draper meet in the first round of the National Bank Open in Montreal on Monday, August 3, 2026, and the sportsbooks make the returning Briton a clear favourite despite a ranking of No. 147. It is his first match since Eastbourne in June and the first ATP meeting between the two left-handers, scheduled fourth on Center Court around 2:10 pm ET per the Dimers odds feed.
Key Facts:
• DraftKings prices Draper at -239 (1.42 decimal); FanDuel offers Atmane at +210 (3.10) — Dimers odds feed, August 3, 2026
• Polymarket trades Draper at 68.5¢ against Atmane at 31.5¢, on roughly $39,400 of 24-hour volume — Polymarket
• Draper, a former world No. 4, is now No. 147 and 8-5 in 2026 after arm and knee injuries — bets.com.au
• Atmane sits at No. 56 with an 11-17 record this season but beat Frances Tiafoe in Washington last week — bets.com.au
• The pair have never met on the ATP Tour — ATP head-to-head
How do the books price Draper’s comeback?
DraftKings lists Draper at -239 in American odds — a $239 stake wins $100 — or 1.42 in decimal format, the total return per unit staked. FanDuel counters with Atmane at +210, or 3.10 in decimal, and the Dimers model lands close to the market at 66.4% for Draper.
Polymarket agrees: Draper last traded at 68.5¢ on about $39,400 of 24-hour volume — a modest number for a player who was world No. 4 twelve months ago. The market is openly pricing in comeback risk.
Why is a former world No. 4 only a modest favourite?
Draper’s 2026 has been wrecked by arm and knee problems. He has played five tournaments for an 8-5 record — four matches in the last 100 days, according to bets.com.au — and withdrew from the Mubadala Citi DC Open last week before accepting a Montreal wild card.
“I’m in the best place that I’ve been in the last year,” said Jack Draper of his recovery. (Sky Sports)
Optimism aside, match sharpness is a different asset from health. The National Bank Open 2026 outright market has already been reshaped by withdrawals this week; Draper’s price carries the same fragility.
Form, head-to-head and the lefty match-up
Atmane’s season numbers are poor, but he is dangerous in exactly this spot. Last week’s win over Tiafoe in Washington showed his explosive first-strike tennis, and his flat lefty serve gives returners little rhythm — a problem for an opponent seeing his first live balls in two months. No head-to-head history adds variance, and variance favours the underdog. The North American hard-court swing feeds straight into the US Open 2026 odds boards.
The betting angle
Favourite: Jack Draper at -239 (American) / 1.42 (decimal) on DraftKings, with Atmane at +210 / 3.10 on FanDuel and Polymarket implying 68.5% for the Briton.
Predicted result: Draper wins 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. The class gap is real, but four matches in 100 days points to a mid-match dip, and Atmane’s serve held up against Tiafoe a week ago.
Prop angles worth a look:
- Over 21.5 total games at 1.67 with Unibet, per bets.com.au — two big lefty serves and Draper’s rust point to few early breaks; Polymarket already prices over 8.5 first-set games at an implied 81.5%.
- Atmane +3.5 games at 1.80, per bets.com.au — the handicap keeps the underdog live even if Draper edges two tight sets.
- Over 2.5 sets at 40.5¢ on Polymarket (roughly +147 equivalent) — consistent with the three-set prediction and Draper’s lack of match play since June.
What to fade: Draper in straight sets. Polymarket prices under 2.5 sets at 59.5¢, a thin payout resting on a player with no competitive tennis in two months.
Odds correct as of August 3, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: What time is Atmane vs Draper at the National Bank Open?
A: Fourth on Center Court in Montreal on Monday, August 3, 2026; the Dimers feed lists an estimated 2:10 pm ET start.
Q: Have Atmane and Draper played each other before?
A: No. This is their first ATP Tour meeting, and both are left-handed.
Q: Why is Jack Draper ranked No. 147?
A: Arm and knee injuries limited him to five tournaments in 2026, collapsing his ranking from a career-high No. 4; he entered Montreal on a wild card.
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