Scottie Scheffler opens at +270 for the 3M Open despite never having played TPC Twin Cities, a price that makes him roughly seven times shorter than the defending champion in a 144-player field.
The 3M Open runs from July 23 to 26, 2026 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, with DraftKings installing Scottie Scheffler as outright favourite at +270 — 3.70 in decimal, so a $100 stake returns $370 in total. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama is next at +1900, with Maverick McNealy at +2100 and Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Fox and Keith Mitchell at +2500. Scheffler is making his tournament debut, which is the tension in the price: a short number on a course the favourite has never seen.
Key Facts:
• Scheffler priced +270 outright, the shortest in the field — DraftKings, July 19, 2026
• Defending champion Kurt Kitayama sits at +1900, roughly seven times the favourite’s price
• Field size is 144 players over four rounds at TPC Twin Cities
• All seven champions in the event’s history since 2019 have finished at 15 under par or better
• Longest prices on the board reach +250000 for Ryan Brehm and Thomas Campbell
Why a +270 favourite is unusual for this event
A price of +270 implies roughly a 27% chance of victory before the bookmaker’s margin. In a 144-player stroke-play field, that is an aggressive number — most regular PGA Tour events open with a favourite between +800 and +1400. The market is pricing Scheffler’s form rather than his course history, of which there is none.
The counterweight is the scoring profile. Every champion since 2019 has reached at least 15 under par, so TPC Twin Cities rewards birdie-making rather than survival. Birdie-heavy setups compress the gap between elite players and the field, because a hot week from a mid-tier player reaches the same number the favourite needs. That is an argument for the field, not the favourite.
Where the value sits behind the favourite
The board thins quickly after Scheffler. Kitayama at +1900 is the only player inside +2000, arriving as defending champion with proven course fit — a combination that usually attracts a shorter price. McNealy at +2100 and the +2500 trio of Matsuyama, Fox and Mitchell form the next tier, with Jake Knapp (+2700), Jackson Koivun (+2800) and Tom Kim (+3300) heading the group where each-way markets typically pay best. Seven different players have won seven editions, which supports the view that the winner rarely comes from the very top of the board.
The playoff-race context
One scheduling factor matters this week: players on the FedExCup bubble have roughly three weeks to move inside the top 70 and qualify for the playoffs, and the 3M Open is one of their last realistic chances. Fields containing motivated bubble players tend to produce more aggressive final-round scoring, because those players cannot afford to protect a top-25 finish. That reinforces the low-scoring profile and again argues for depth over the favourite.
Betting Outlook
Favourite: Scottie Scheffler at +270 (American) / 3.70 (decimal) on DraftKings, making his first start at TPC Twin Cities. No player in the field is priced within +1600 of him.
Predicted result: a winning score of 19 under par or lower, with the champion emerging from outside the top three on the board. Every previous winner has reached 15 under, the field is full of bubble players with reason to attack, and seven different names have won seven editions — the historical pattern points away from a favourite making his course debut.
Markets worth a look:
- Kurt Kitayama at +1900 — the only player under +2000 and the sole man in the field who has already solved this course under tournament conditions.
- Jake Knapp at +2700 — a distance-first profile that suits a birdie-heavy setup where scoring records fall rather than hold.
- Top-10 finish markets over outright win — in a 144-player field with compressed scoring, place markets carry better strike rates than outrights for the +2500-and-longer tier.
What to fade: the Scheffler outright at +270. The price implies about 27% in a 144-man field on a course he has never played, at an event whose seven editions have produced seven different champions. That is a lot of assumption packed into a short number — the same view expressed through a top-five or top-10 market carries far less variance.
Odds correct as of July 19, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: When and where is the 2026 3M Open?
A: July 23 to 26, 2026 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, with a 144-player field.
Q: Who is the favourite and what price?
A: Scottie Scheffler at +270 on DraftKings as of July 19, 2026, ahead of defending champion Kurt Kitayama at +1900.
Q: What winning score does this course usually require?
A: All seven champions since 2019 have finished at 15 under par or better, so it plays as a birdie-scoring test rather than an attrition course.
More market previews on this site: Open Championship 2026 odds with Scheffler favourite and Reds vs Mariners odds and prediction. Full outright board via DraftKings Network.
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