Open Championship debutant Jackson Suber leads at Royal Birkdale after a first-round 65, but the betting market has barely blinked: DraftKings still prices Scottie Scheffler as the clear outright favourite heading into Friday.
The Open Championship 2026 odds still point firmly at Scottie Scheffler, even though the world number one sits three shots off the lead after round one at Royal Birkdale. Suber, a 26-year-old playing his first links-golf major, shot five-under 65 on July 16, 2026 to lead Sungjae Im and Daniel Brown by one. Scheffler is at two under, yet bookmakers moved him shorter, not longer, overnight.
Key Facts:
• Jackson Suber, an Open debutant, leads at five under after a first-round 65 at Royal Birkdale — Golf Channel
• Scottie Scheffler sits three back at two under but is the +425 outright favourite at DraftKings — DraftKings Network
• DataGolf’s model gives Scheffler an 11.7% win probability, ahead of Cameron Young (7.0%) and Robert MacIntyre (5.8%) — DataGolf
• Rory McIlroy opened with a two-over 72 and drifted to +3600 at DraftKings — DraftKings Network
What happened in round one at Royal Birkdale?
Suber’s 65 was the story of Thursday. The American had never played links golf until this week and had qualified for only two majors before arriving in Southport. “Monday was my first round of links golf, so I’ve played 27 holes before I played the first round today,” Suber said. (Golf Channel)
Behind him, Im and Brown posted 66s, with Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Young in the group at three under. Scheffler birdied four of his opening six holes and briefly led outright before settling for a 68. McIlroy’s 72 leaves him grinding just to make the top-70-and-ties cut.
Why is Scheffler still the favourite?
Price-setters trust class over one round. DraftKings cut Scheffler to +425 in American odds — 5.25 in decimal, meaning a $100 stake returns $425 profit — from +620 pre-tournament, per the DraftKings Network update of July 16, 2026. Young is next at +1100, with DeChambeau +1200 and MacIntyre +1425.
Suber, despite leading, is +2050. The models agree with the books: DataGolf makes Scheffler an 11.7% chance, nearly three times Suber’s 4.4%, reflecting how rarely first-time major leaders convert 54 more holes into a trophy.
Form, history and the chasing pack
Royal Birkdale rewards flushed long irons and patience out of pot bunkers, and Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained on approach this season. Jordan Spieth won here in 2017 from a congested Sunday leaderboard — and freshening weekend winds are forecast, which typically favours the elite ball-strikers. Major outright markets have been moving fast all month, as the US Open 2026 outright odds showed after Wimbledon.
Betting outlook
Favourite: Scottie Scheffler at +425 (American) / 5.25 (decimal) on DraftKings as of July 17, 2026 — three shots back but holding the field’s best model probability at 11.7% (DataGolf).
Predicted result: Scheffler lifts the Claret Jug at 12 under, two clear of Cameron Young. He was the pre-tournament favourite for a reason: no player in the top 10 gains more on approach, and Birkdale’s firm fairways magnify that edge over 72 holes.
Markets worth a look:
- Cameron Young outright at +1100 — DataGolf’s 7.0% win probability makes him the model’s clear second pick, and he sits just two off the lead.
- Jackson Suber top-10 finish — even if the win is a stretch, a 4.4% DataGolf win probability from the front of the field implies a comfortable top-10 base case.
- Robert MacIntyre outright at +1425 — the Scot’s 5.8% model probability and links pedigree make him the value pick of the chasing pack, similar to the futures logic in the World Series odds at the All-Star break.
What to fade: Rory McIlroy at +3600. A two-over 72 leaves him near the cut line, and a seven-shot major comeback is a once-a-decade event. The price looks tempting; the maths does not.
Odds correct as of July 17, 2026. Informational only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: Who is leading the 2026 Open Championship?
A: Jackson Suber leads at five under after a first-round 65 at Royal Birkdale, one clear of Sungjae Im and Daniel Brown.
Q: Who is the favourite to win the Open Championship 2026?
A: Scottie Scheffler, at +425 on DraftKings as of July 17, 2026, despite sitting three shots off the lead at two under.
Q: When do the final rounds at Royal Birkdale take place?
A: Round three is on Saturday July 18 and the final round on Sunday July 19, 2026.
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