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Premier League 2026-27 odds: Arsenal favourites to repeat
Arsenal open the 2026-27 Premier League as 6/4 favourites to retain the title, a year after starting the last campaign at 9/2 behind Liverpool and Manchester City.
Updated 9 October 2026: the William Hill prices quoted here were published on 20 May 2026, not 19 July 2026 as originally stated; the price dates have been corrected.
Arsenal are outright favourites to win the 2026-27 Premier League at 6/4 with William Hill, ahead of Manchester City at 5/2 and Liverpool at 5/1. The season opens Friday August 21, 2026, when Arsenal host newly promoted Coventry City at the Emirates Stadium — a week later than the previous campaign, to give players recovery time after the 2026 World Cup.
How to read the prices
UK bookmakers quote outrights fractionally: 6/4 means a 4-unit stake returns 6 in profit plus the stake — 2.50 decimal, +150 American. Shorter price, higher implied probability.
| Team | Fractional | Decimal | American | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 6/4 | 2.50 | +150 | 40.0% |
| Manchester City | 5/2 | 3.50 | +250 | 28.6% |
| Liverpool | 5/1 | 6.00 | +500 | 16.7% |
| Manchester United | 7/1 | 8.00 | +700 | 12.5% |
Those four total 97.8% before the rest of the field is added, so the book runs well over 100%. That surplus is the overround — the bookmaker’s margin — so read the percentages as rankings, not probabilities.
Why the market flipped so hard
Arsenal’s repricing from 9/2 to 6/4 in a single season is the sharpest move on the board. “Arsenal finally ended their 22-year Premier League title drought last night thanks to Bournemouth’s draw with Manchester City, and the Gunners’ triumph has already sparked huge excitement,” said Lee Phelps, spokesperson at William Hill, adding that Mikel Arteta’s side “are now the team to beat”. (William Hill News)
The counterweight is Manchester City at 5/2. City are rebuilding for their first season after Pep Guardiola, and 28.6% for a squad in managerial changeover is a firm price rather than a cautious one.
What the calendar does to the market
Two dates matter before a ball is kicked in anger. The Community Shield on August 16, 2026 puts Arsenal and Manchester City together in Cardiff, and the transfer window stays open until September 1, 2026 — 11 days after the season starts. Prices taken now are set before the squads that will contest the title are finalised, the biggest uncertainty on the board. The same dynamic ran through the World Cup 2026 outright market.
Betting Outlook
Favourite: Arsenal at 6/4 (2.50 decimal, +150 American) with William Hill, priced May 20, 2026 — defending champions, and above City, Liverpool and United in the 2025-26 table.
Predicted outcome: the market’s central case is an Arsenal–Manchester City race decided in the final month, Liverpool the likeliest third party. Arsenal’s 40% rests on continuity rather than reinforcement.
Markets worth watching:
- Manchester City top-two — the 5/2 outright asks City to win; top-two prices the same post-Guardiola rebuild without requiring it to succeed immediately.
- Arsenal points totals — posted in early August. The title was sealed via a Bournemouth-Manchester City draw rather than a runaway margin, arguing against a high ceiling.
- Manchester United at 7/1 — fourth in 2025-26 yet closer to the top three than the 10/1 bar, the board’s clearest disagreement with last season’s table.
What the market may be overrating: Arsenal at 6/4. Back-to-back titles have been rare outside dominant City sides, and 40% leaves little room for the variance a 38-game season reliably produces. The price reflects last season’s result more than next season’s squad, which is not yet complete.
Odds correct as of May 20, 2026. Informational analysis only — not financial or betting advice. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction. See Responsible Gambling notice below.
FAQ
Q: When does the 2026-27 Premier League season start?
A: Friday August 21, 2026 — Arsenal versus Coventry City at the Emirates, a week later than 2025-26 to allow recovery after the World Cup.
Q: Who are the title favourites?
A: Arsenal 6/4, Manchester City 5/2, Liverpool 5/1, Manchester United 7/1 — William Hill, May 20, 2026.
Q: Can outright prices still move much?
A: Yes. The window closes 23:00 BST on September 1, 2026 — after the season begins — so squads are unsettled when these prices are quoted. The World Cup 2026 final market showed how far prices travel once line-ups firm up.
18+Gambling carries financial risk and can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs help, visit GamCare (UK), call 1-800-GAMBLER (US), or see our Responsible Gambling page. 18+ / 21+ depending on jurisdiction.
Nine-year crypto and forex veteran covering token analysis, prediction markets, and blockchain-based gambling infrastructure. Founder, writer, and consultant specialising in the intersection of digital assets and iGaming.
