BetMGM cuts 2026 guidance after Q1 revenue miss and 68% EBITDA drop

What the Q1 print actually says

The 14% top-line miss is meaningful given how widely BetMGM has telegraphed its turnaround thesis for 18 months. The split is what matters: iGaming continues to compound at high single digits, while online sports betting growth has compressed to 4%, well below the ~8% US handle growth DraftKings and FanDuel delivered. That gap triggered the FY guidance cut.

iGaming carried $481 million of the $696 million quarterly revenue — roughly 69% of mix. That share has climbed steadily since the segment overtook sports betting in mid-2024. The casino product is doing the work; the sportsbook is not converting handle into revenue at the rate the JV model assumed.

Why the guidance cut matters

This is the second guidance cut in twelve months. The new $2.9–3.1 billion FY net revenue band slips BetMGM below the high-growth-operator categorisation that justifies its current EBITDA multiple. JV economics mean each parent books 50% of net results, so the cut flows through to both MGM and Entain consolidated outlooks. MGM Resorts’ record $4.45 billion Q1 print was the cleanest parent-level beat in six quarters; Rush Street’s record $370 million Q1 sits at the opposite end of the operator-results spectrum.

Market response was measured. Entain’s London listing closed roughly 4% below the Wednesday open; MGM’s NYSE listing held flat as investors priced the impact at the parent level. That divergence is the tell — investors see this as an operator-execution issue, not a structural call on US sports betting.

Where the iGaming-only mix is taking the operator

The 69% iGaming revenue share is the strategic question. BetMGM operates in seven US iGaming-legal states (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island), and the segment’s regulatory expansion path now runs primarily through state legislatures rather than through new federal frameworks. Maine’s July 2026 iGaming launch via Wabanaki tribal operator deals is the next concrete add — BetMGM is one of three operators in active partnership discussions for the Maine slot.

The sports betting path is harder. BetMGM trails FanDuel and DraftKings on monthly active users (MAU) in every state where all three operate, and player acquisition costs have climbed through 2026 as the duopoly+1 structure has hardened. The Q1 print confirms that competing on promotion intensity is not closing the gap.

What CEO Adam Greenblatt said

“Q1 was clearly below where we wanted to be on the sports betting side. iGaming continues to perform strongly, and we are taking decisive action on the cost base and the player-acquisition strategy in OSB. The revised guidance reflects what we now see as the achievable trajectory for the year, not the original ambition. We remain confident in the long-term economics of the joint venture.”

— Adam Greenblatt, chief executive of BetMGM, on the Q1 results call (Entain Q1 update)

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