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Deep Dives
Polymarket Fed decision July 2026: is no change at 78¢ value?
Polymarket prices no change at 78c for the July 29 Fed decision. CME FedWatch says 70.1%. Our estimate: 85% - a +7pp edge. The math, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi AmureDeep Dives
Long-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Wimbledon 2026 final odds: is Sinner at 79¢ value?
Wimbledon 2026 final odds and prediction: Kalshi has Jannik Sinner at 79¢ to beat Alexander Zverev. We model the true probability, the edge, and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket 2026 midterms odds: are Democrats at 84¢ value?
Polymarket has Democrats at 84¢ to win the House in the 2026 midterms. We model the true probability at ~79% — why the value sits on NO, not YES.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329 odds: is 65¢ Holloway value?
McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329 odds: Polymarket has Holloway at 65.5¢, our model says 73% — a 7.5pp edge. The math, the case against, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket World Cup 2026 odds: is France at 33¢ value?
Polymarket World Cup 2026 odds price France at 33¢. Opta's model and a bracket-path estimate straddle the price — the full math on where value opens.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Kalshi Fed July 2026 odds: is a 25bps hike at 10¢ value?
Kalshi prices a 25bps Fed hike at the July 2026 FOMC at 10¢ while fed funds futures imply 18.8%. We walk the math, the edge, and where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Kalshi vs Polymarket World Cup 2026 odds: is Spain at 12¢ value?
Kalshi vs Polymarket World Cup 2026 odds compared: Spain trades at 12¢ on both venues. We model the true probability near 14% — a thin edge, deconstructed.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket 2026 Senate odds: are Democrats at 42¢ value?
2026 Senate odds: prediction markets price Democrats near 42¢ to flip the chamber, but a red-tilted map makes the Republican hold the value side.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
World Cup 2026 odds: is England at 12¢ on Polymarket value?
World Cup 2026 odds: England trade at 12¢ on Polymarket (12% implied), but Opta's 11.2% says the price is fair, not value. The math, the bracket, the edge.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
World Cup 2026 odds: is Argentina at 15¢ on Polymarket value?
World Cup 2026 odds: Polymarket has Argentina at 15¢ (15%), but a path model says ~12% — the title holders look slightly overbet. Where the bet breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
World Cup 2026 odds: is France at 19¢ on Polymarket value?
World Cup 2026 odds: Polymarket has France at 19¢ to win, but an Opta-anchored model says ~15% — why the favourite is slightly overpriced, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket Fed July 2026 odds: is a rate hike at 23¢ value?
Polymarket prices a July 2026 Fed rate hike at 23¢. We compare it to CME FedWatch and the FOMC calendar to find where the value sits — and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure