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Deep Dives
NFL MVP 2026 odds: is Josh Allen at +600 value?
Josh Allen opens 2026 NFL MVP favourite at +600 (14.3% implied). Only one of the last 10 winners was the preseason favourite - the edge sits in the +800 to +4000 band.
Tobi Opeyemi AmureDeep Dives
Long-form explainers, guides, and investigations into how crypto and iGaming actually work. From beginner-friendly breakdowns of core concepts to post-mortems of major industry events, we go beyond headlines to show you the full picture.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Tarik Skubal trade odds 2026: why Kalshi's 37% is too high
Kalshi prices a Skubal trade at 37%. Detroit are 25-15 since June 1 and ESPN says they intend to hold. We make it 25% - a 12pp edge on NO, and shrinking.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Clarity Act Polymarket odds: is NO at 63¢ the value side?
Clarity Act Polymarket odds sit at 37.5¢ YES after Thune ruled out an August 7 vote. Our model says 22%, making NO at 63¢ the value side by about 15pp.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket Greenland odds: why 8¢ is a paperwork bet
Polymarket Greenland odds sit at 8c, but the contract resolves on a signed US-Denmark instrument, not diplomacy. Our estimate is 5% - the edge is on NO.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Super Bowl LXI odds: are the Rams at 16¢ on Kalshi value?
Kalshi and Polymarket both price the Rams at 16¢ for Super Bowl LXI. The preseason-favourite base rate says 12.9%. Where the 2.5pp gap breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Ballon d'Or 2026 odds: is Harry Kane at 39¢ value?
Ballon d'Or 2026 odds: Polymarket has Harry Kane at 39.45¢ after England's semi-final exit. Our model says 30% - the de-vig working, the edge and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket Senate 2026: are Democrats at 43.5¢ value?
Polymarket prices Democratic Senate control at 43.5c but its own Balance of Power market implies 45.3%. The edge, the state math and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
World Cup Golden Boot odds: is Messi at 7.6c value?
Polymarket has Messi at 7.6c for the World Cup Golden Boot with Mbappe frozen on 10 goals. The assists tiebreak means he needs two goals, not three.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket LeBron next team: is Cleveland at 28¢ value?
Polymarket has Cleveland at 28¢ to be LeBron James's next team; Kalshi has it at 41% de-vigged. We estimate 38% — an 11pp edge, and where it breaks.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket F1 2026: is Antonelli at 59¢ champion value?
Polymarket prices Antonelli at 59¢ for the 2026 F1 title. Our points-pace model says 65% — a +6pp edge that dies on a third Mercedes retirement. Full math inside.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Polymarket World Cup 2026: is Argentina at 17¢ value?
Polymarket has Argentina at 17.35c to win the 2026 World Cup - the lowest of the four semi-finalists. Our model says 20.3%. Where the 3-point edge comes from.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Kalshi vs Polymarket World Cup odds: is England at 21.6¢ value?
England trade at 21.6¢ to win the 2026 World Cup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Our bracket model says 17.8% — a 3.8pp overlay. Argentina is the better side.
Tobi Opeyemi Amure